Liu Zhiqian, Peng Yaqin, Xu Danping, Zhuo Zhihang
College of Life Science, China West Normal University, Nanchong 637002, China.
Insects. 2024 Sep 6;15(9):675. doi: 10.3390/insects15090675.
is a pest that poses a significant threat to agricultural crops, especially cotton, and is now widely distributed across many regions worldwide. In this study, we performed a meta-analysis on the collected experimental data and found that within the suitable temperature range, the survival rate of increases with rising temperatures, indicating that climate plays a decisive role in its distribution. Using the MaxEnt model this study predicted that under three future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), the distribution of will expand and move towards higher latitudes. Climate change is the primary factor influencing changes in pest distribution. We conducted a meta-analysis of , including seven independent studies covering 221 observation results, and examined the impact of temperature ranging from 18 °C to 39 °C on the developmental cycle of . As the temperature rises, the development cycle of gradually decreases. Additionally, by combining the MaxEnt model, we predicted the current and potential future distribution range of . The results show that under future climate warming, the distribution area of in China will expand. This research provides a theoretical basis for early monitoring and control of this pest's occurrence and spread. Therefore, the predictive results of this study will provide important information for managers in monitoring and help them formulate relevant control strategies.
是一种对农作物，尤其是棉花构成重大威胁的害虫，目前在全球许多地区广泛分布。在本研究中，我们对收集到的实验数据进行了荟萃分析，发现在适宜温度范围内，其存活率随温度升高而增加，这表明气候在其分布中起决定性作用。本研究使用MaxEnt模型预测，在未来三种气候情景（SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）下，其分布范围将扩大并向高纬度地区移动。气候变化是影响害虫分布变化的主要因素。我们对其进行了荟萃分析，包括七项独立研究，涵盖221个观测结果，并研究了18℃至39℃的温度对其发育周期的影响。随着温度升高，其发育周期逐渐缩短。此外，通过结合MaxEnt模型，我们预测了其当前和未来潜在的分布范围。结果表明，在未来气候变暖的情况下，其在中国的分布面积将扩大。本研究为该害虫发生和传播的早期监测与防控提供了理论依据。因此，本研究的预测结果将为管理人员监测提供重要信息，并帮助他们制定相关防控策略。
