PURPOSE: Nonsense-mediated RNA decay (NMD), a surveillance pathway for selective degradation of aberrant mRNAs, is associated with cancer progression. Its potential as a predictor for aggressive hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is unclear. Here, we present an innovative NMD risk model for predicting HCC prognosis. METHODS: The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) data of 374 liver HCC (LIHC) and 50 normal liver samples were extracted. A risk model based on NMD-related genes was developed through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox (LASSO-Cox) regression of the LIHC-TCGA data. Prognostic validation was done using GSE54236, GSE116174, and GSE76427 data. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to assess the prognostic value of the model. We also constructed nomograms for survival prediction. Tumor immune infiltration was evaluated using the CIBERSORT algorithm, and the tumor cell phenotype was assessed. Finally, mouse experiments verified UPF3B knockdown effects on HCC tumor characteristics. RESULTS: We developed a risk model based on four NMD-related genes (, and ) and validated it using GSE54236, GSE116174, and GSE76427 data. The model effectively distinguished high- and low-risk groups corresponding to unfavorable and favorable HCC outcomes. Its prognostic prediction accuracy was confirmed through time-dependent ROC analysis, and clinical-use nomograms with calibration curves were developed. Single-cell RNA sequencing results indicated significantly higher expression of and in tumor cells. Knockdown of and inhibited HCC cell proliferation, invasion, and migration, while affecting cell-cycle progression and apoptosis. In vivo, knockdown delayed tumor growth and increased immune cell infiltration. CONCLUSION: Our NMD-related gene-based risk model can help identify therapeutic targets and biomarkers for HCC. Additionally, it assists clinicians in predicting the prognosis of HCC patients.