建模溢出动力学:理解公共卫生关注的新兴病原体。
Modeling spillover dynamics: understanding emerging pathogens of public health concern.
机构信息
Basque Center for Applied Mathematics (BCAM), Bilbao, Spain.
Ikerbasque, Basque Foundation for Science, Bilbao, Spain.
出版信息
Sci Rep. 2024 Apr 29;14(1):9823. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-60661-y.
The emergence of infectious diseases with pandemic potential is a major public health threat worldwide. The World Health Organization reports that about 60% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonoses, originating from spillover events. Although the mechanisms behind spillover events remain unclear, mathematical modeling offers a way to understand the intricate interactions among pathogens, wildlife, humans, and their shared environment. Aiming at gaining insights into the dynamics of spillover events and the outcome of an eventual disease outbreak in a population, we propose a continuous time stochastic modeling framework. This framework links the dynamics of animal reservoirs and human hosts to simulate cross-species disease transmission. We conduct a thorough analysis of the model followed by numerical experiments that explore various spillover scenarios. The results suggest that although most epidemic outbreaks caused by novel zoonotic pathogens do not persist in the human population, the rising number of spillover events can avoid long-lasting extinction and lead to unexpected large outbreaks. Hence, global efforts to reduce the impacts of emerging diseases should not only address post-emergence outbreak control but also need to prevent pandemics before they are established.
传染病的出现具有大流行潜力,是全球主要的公共卫生威胁。世界卫生组织报告称,大约 60%的新发传染病是人畜共患病,源自溢出事件。尽管溢出事件背后的机制仍不清楚,但数学建模提供了一种理解病原体、野生动物、人类及其共同环境之间复杂相互作用的方法。为了深入了解溢出事件的动态以及最终在人群中爆发疾病的结果,我们提出了一个连续时间随机建模框架。该框架将动物宿主和人类宿主的动态联系起来,以模拟跨物种疾病传播。我们对模型进行了彻底的分析,并进行了数值实验,以探索各种溢出情景。结果表明,尽管大多数由新型人畜共患病原体引起的传染病暴发不会在人类中持续存在,但溢出事件的增加可以避免长期灭绝,并导致意外的大规模暴发。因此,减少新发传染病影响的全球努力不仅应着眼于疫情后的爆发控制,还需要在大流行形成之前进行预防。