野生动物相关人畜共患病的建模:应用与注意事项。

Modeling of wildlife-associated zoonoses: applications and caveats.

作者信息

Alexander Kathleen A, Lewis Bryan L, Marathe Madhav, Eubank Stephen, Blackburn Jason K

机构信息

Department of Fish and Wildlife Conservation, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University , Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA.

出版信息

Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2012 Dec;12(12):1005-18. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2012.0987. Epub 2012 Nov 30.

Abstract

Wildlife species are identified as an important source of emerging zoonotic disease. Accordingly, public health programs have attempted to expand in scope to include a greater focus on wildlife and its role in zoonotic disease outbreaks. Zoonotic disease transmission dynamics involving wildlife are complex and nonlinear, presenting a number of challenges. First, empirical characterization of wildlife host species and pathogen systems are often lacking, and insight into one system may have little application to another involving the same host species and pathogen. Pathogen transmission characterization is difficult due to the changing nature of population size and density associated with wildlife hosts. Infectious disease itself may influence wildlife population demographics through compensatory responses that may evolve, such as decreased age to reproduction. Furthermore, wildlife reservoir dynamics can be complex, involving various host species and populations that may vary in their contribution to pathogen transmission and persistence over space and time. Mathematical models can provide an important tool to engage these complex systems, and there is an urgent need for increased computational focus on the coupled dynamics that underlie pathogen spillover at the human-wildlife interface. Often, however, scientists conducting empirical studies on emerging zoonotic disease do not have the necessary skill base to choose, develop, and apply models to evaluate these complex systems. How do modeling frameworks differ and what considerations are important when applying modeling tools to the study of zoonotic disease? Using zoonotic disease examples, we provide an overview of several common approaches and general considerations important in the modeling of wildlife-associated zoonoses.

摘要

野生动物物种被认为是新出现的人畜共患病的重要来源。因此,公共卫生项目试图扩大范围,更加关注野生动物及其在人畜共患病爆发中的作用。涉及野生动物的人畜共患病传播动态复杂且呈非线性,带来了诸多挑战。首先,往往缺乏对野生动物宿主物种和病原体系统的实证描述,而且对一个系统的见解可能对另一个涉及相同宿主物种和病原体的系统几乎没有应用价值。由于与野生动物宿主相关的种群规模和密度不断变化,病原体传播特征难以确定。传染病本身可能通过代偿反应影响野生动物种群统计学特征,而这种代偿反应可能会演变,比如繁殖年龄降低。此外,野生动物宿主动态可能很复杂,涉及各种宿主物种和种群,它们在病原体传播以及在空间和时间上的持续存在方面的贡献可能各不相同。数学模型可以为研究这些复杂系统提供重要工具,迫切需要加大计算方面的关注,以研究人畜共患病原体溢出背后的耦合动态。然而,从事新出现的人畜共患病实证研究的科学家往往没有必要的技能基础来选择、开发和应用模型以评估这些复杂系统。建模框架有何不同,将建模工具应用于人畜共患病研究时哪些因素很重要?我们以人畜共患病为例,概述了几种常见方法以及在与野生动物相关的人畜共患病建模中重要的一般考虑因素。

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