新型病原体出现建模中的九个挑战。
Nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens.
作者信息
Lloyd-Smith James O, Funk Sebastian, McLean Angela R, Riley Steven, Wood James L N
机构信息
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
Center for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
出版信息
Epidemics. 2015 Mar;10:35-9. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2014.09.002. Epub 2014 Sep 19.
Abstract
Studying the emergence of novel infectious agents involves many processes spanning host species, spatial scales, and scientific disciplines. Mathematical models play an essential role in combining insights from these investigations and drawing robust inferences from field and experimental data. We describe nine challenges in modelling the emergence of novel pathogens, emphasizing the interface between models and data.
摘要
研究新型传染病病原体的出现涉及跨越宿主物种、空间尺度和科学学科的许多过程。数学模型在整合这些调查的见解并从实地和实验数据中得出可靠推论方面发挥着重要作用。我们描述了在对新型病原体出现进行建模时面临的九个挑战，重点强调模型与数据之间的接口。
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