Hao Zhuowen, Wang Ying, Wang Linlong, Feng Qinyu, Li Hanke, Chen Tianhong, Chen Jiayao, Wang Junwu, Shi Guang, Chen Renxin, Li Beihai, Zhou Shuanhu, Jin Wei, Li Jingfeng
Department of Orthopedics, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430071, Hubei Province, China.
Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430060, Hubei Province, China.
Clin Rheumatol. 2024 Jun;43(6):2061-2077. doi: 10.1007/s10067-024-06985-6. Epub 2024 May 2.
This study aimed to estimate and predict the burden of osteoarthritis (OA) and site-specific OA (hip, knee, hand, and others) from 1990 to 2030 and their attributable risk factors in China.
Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019. The burden was estimated by analyzing the trends of prevalence, incidence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY). Population attributable risk (PAR) was calculated to assess the impact of high body mass index (BMI). The prediction from 2020 to 2030 was implemented by Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.
In China, prevalent cases, DALY, and incident cases of OA increased to 132.81 million, 4.72 million, and 10.68 million, respectively. Age-standardized rates (ASRs) of prevalence, DALYs, and incidence increased for OA and site-specific OA, especially for hip OA. Site-specific OA showed different susceptible peaking ages, and the burden for those over 50 years old became serious. Female preference existed in the trends for knee OA but not in those for hip, hand, and other OA. PARs of high BMI continued to increase, impacting knee OA more than hip OA and showing female preference. In the next decade, incident cases for OA and site-specific OA will continue to increase, despite that the ASR of OA incidence will decrease.
OA and site-specific OA remain huge public health challenges in China. The burden of OA and site-specific OA is increasing, especially among people over 50 years old. Health education, exercise, and removing modifiable risk factors contribute to alleviate the growing burden. Key Points • In China, the burden of osteoarthritis and site-specific osteoarthritis (hip, knee, hand, and others) as well as the Risk Factor (high body mass index) increased greatly from 1990 to 2019. • It is estimated that incident cases for OA and site-specific OA will continue to increase, despite that the ASR of OA incidence will decrease.
本研究旨在估计并预测1990年至2030年中国骨关节炎（OA）及特定部位OA（髋、膝、手及其他部位）的负担及其可归因风险因素。
数据来源于《2019年全球疾病负担》。通过分析患病率、发病率和伤残调整生命年（DALY）的趋势来估计负担。计算人群归因风险（PAR）以评估高体重指数（BMI）的影响。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列分析对2020年至2030年进行预测。
在中国，OA的患病例数、DALY和新发病例数分别增至1.3281亿、472万和1068万。OA及特定部位OA的年龄标准化患病率、DALY率和发病率均有所上升，尤其是髋部OA。特定部位OA呈现不同的易感高峰年龄，50岁以上人群的负担加重。膝OA的趋势存在女性偏好，而髋、手及其他OA则不存在。高BMI的PAR持续上升，对膝OA的影响大于髋OA，且存在女性偏好。在未来十年，尽管OA发病率的年龄标准化率将下降，但OA及特定部位OA的新发病例数仍将继续增加。
OA及特定部位OA在中国仍然是巨大的公共卫生挑战。OA及特定部位OA的负担正在增加，尤其是在50岁以上人群中。健康教育、运动以及消除可改变的风险因素有助于减轻不断增加的负担。要点 • 在中国，1990年至2019年骨关节炎及特定部位骨关节炎（髋、膝、手及其他部位）的负担以及风险因素（高体重指数）大幅增加。 • 据估计，尽管OA发病率的年龄标准化率将下降，但OA及特定部位OA的新发病例数仍将继续增加。
