Hussain Md Razeen Ashraf, Shaba Syeda Sabrina Easmin, Bunthen E, Eity Kaniz Fateema, Roshid Md Marufur, Kuddus Md Abdul
Epidemiology and Research, Asian Institute of Disability and Development, Dhaka, BGD.
Epidemiology and Public Health, National Liver Foundation of Bangladesh, Dhaka, BGD.
Cureus. 2024 Apr 6;16(4):e57708. doi: 10.7759/cureus.57708. eCollection 2024 Apr.
Introduction Despite the implementation of countermeasures and mass vaccination programs, the COVID-19 pandemic incidence was a vital public health concern. This study aimed to explore the dynamics of COVID-19 cases and assess the association of COVID-19 pandemic epidemiological data with meteorological factors in Hiroshima Prefecture compared to Japan. Methods We analyzed COVID-19 pandemic data in Japan's Hiroshima Prefecture from January 16, 2020, to May 9, 2023. Meteorological factors were examined at different time frames, and Spearman correlation coefficients were calculated for COVID-19 variables and variants based on GISAID whole genome analysis. Results Hiroshima Prefecture reported 816,788 COVID-19 cases and 1,371 fatalities, with a city-to-rural case ratio of 0.97:1. Infection rates were 17.42% for Japan and 15.83% for Hiroshima. Gender-wise, the ratio was 99:1, and the 30-39 age group in Hiroshima had the highest cases (15.5%). Among all meteorological factors, daily and 14-day average wind speed showed a weak correlation with incidence (-0.1954, P < 0.01; 0.3669 P < 0.01), fatalities (-0.1148, P < 0.01; -0.2232 P < 0.01), and incidence rate (-0.2042, P < 0.01; -0.3751, P < 0.01), respectively. Clade GRA was most frequent (39.7%), and among 61 variants, B.1.1.7, AY.29, and BA.1.1.2 were predominant. Precipitation was associated significantly with the Alpha variant (0.3373, P<0.01), while the Delta variant (0.2934, <0.05) weakly correlated with humidity. Conclusion COVID-19 pandemic trends in Hiroshima Prefecture paralleled Japan's, yet with lower incidence and fatalities compared to most prefectures. Significant associations were found between meteorological factors and COVID-19 metrics, including incidence, fatalities, incidence rate, and mutations in Hiroshima.
引言 尽管采取了应对措施并实施了大规模疫苗接种计划，但新冠疫情的发病率仍是一个至关重要的公共卫生问题。本研究旨在探讨广岛县新冠病例的动态变化，并评估广岛县与日本相比，新冠疫情流行病学数据与气象因素之间的关联。方法 我们分析了2020年1月16日至2023年5月9日日本广岛县的新冠疫情数据。在不同时间框架内检查气象因素，并基于全球流感共享数据库（GISAID）全基因组分析计算新冠变量和变异株的斯皮尔曼相关系数。结果 广岛县报告了816,788例新冠病例和1,371例死亡病例，城乡病例比为0.97:1。日本的感染率为17.42%，广岛为15.83%。按性别划分，比例为99:1，广岛30-39岁年龄组的病例数最多（15.5%）。在所有气象因素中，日平均风速和14日平均风速与发病率（-0.1954，P<0.01；-0.3669，P<0.01）、死亡率（-0.1148，P<0.01；-0.2232，P<0.01）和发病率（-0.2042，P<0.01；-0.3751，P<0.01）分别呈弱相关。GRA分支最为常见（39.7%），在61种变异株中，B.1.1.7、AY.29和BA.1.1.2占主导地位。降水量与阿尔法变异株显著相关（0.3373，P<0.01），而德尔塔变异株与湿度呈弱相关（0.2934，P<0.05）。结论 广岛县的新冠疫情趋势与日本相似，但与大多数县相比，发病率和死亡率较低。在广岛，发现气象因素与新冠指标之间存在显著关联，包括发病率死亡率、发病率和变异情况。
