Program in Public Health, Health Sciences Center, Stony Brook University, #3-071, Nichols Rd., Stony Brook, NY, 11794-8338, USA.
Department of Family, Population, and Preventive Medicine, Renaissance School of Medicine at Stony Brook, Stony Brook, NY, USA.
BMC Infect Dis. 2021 Nov 27;21(1):1194. doi: 10.1186/s12879-021-06796-z.
To examine whether outdoor transmission may contribute to the COVID-19 epidemic, we hypothesized that slower outdoor wind speed is associated with increased risk of transmission when individuals socialize outside.
Daily COVID-19 incidence reported in Suffolk County, NY, between March 16th and December 31st, 2020, was the outcome. Average wind speed and maximal daily temperature were collated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Negative binomial regression was used to model incidence rates while adjusting for susceptible population size.
Cases were very high in the initial wave but diminished once lockdown procedures were enacted. Most days between May 1st, 2020, and October 24th, 2020, had temperatures 16-28 °C and wind speed diminished slowly over the year and began to increase again in December 2020. Unadjusted and multivariable-adjusted analyses revealed that days with temperatures ranging between 16 and 28 °C where wind speed was < 8.85 km per hour (KPH) had increased COVID-19 incidence (aIRR = 1.45, 95% C.I. = [1.28-1.64], P < 0.001) as compared to days with average wind speed ≥ 8.85 KPH.
Throughout the U.S. epidemic, the role of outdoor shared spaces such as parks and beaches has been a topic of considerable interest. This study suggests that outdoor transmission of COVID-19 may occur by noting that the risk of transmission of COVID-19 in the summer was higher on days with low wind speed. Outdoor use of increased physical distance between individuals, improved air circulation, and use of masks may be helpful in some outdoor environments where airflow is limited.
为了研究户外传播是否可能导致 COVID-19 疫情，我们假设当人们在户外社交时，较慢的户外风速与传播风险增加有关。
纽约州萨福克县 2020 年 3 月 16 日至 12 月 31 日期间报告的每日 COVID-19 发病率为结果。国家海洋和大气管理局整理了平均风速和最大日温度。使用负二项回归模型来调整易感人群规模后，对发病率进行建模。
在初始波中病例非常高，但一旦实施封锁程序，病例就会减少。2020 年 5 月 1 日至 10 月 24 日之间的大多数日子，温度在 16-28°C 之间，风速在一年内缓慢下降，并在 2020 年 12 月再次开始增加。未经调整和多变量调整分析表明，温度在 16 到 28°C 之间且风速<8.85 公里/小时（KPH）的日子 COVID-19 发病率增加（调整后发病率比[aIRR] = 1.45，95%置信区间[1.28-1.64]，P<0.001），而风速≥8.85 KPH 的日子发病率则较低。
在美国疫情期间，公园和海滩等户外共享空间的作用一直是人们关注的话题。本研究表明，COVID-19 的户外传播可能会发生，因为在夏季，当风速较低时，COVID-19 的传播风险较高。在户外，增加人与人之间的物理距离、改善空气流通和使用口罩可能有助于在某些空气流通有限的户外环境中。
