School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 May 9;14(1):10614. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-61262-5.
Regional population mortality correlates with regional socioeconomic development. This study aimed to identify the key socioeconomic factors influencing mortality patterns in Chinese provinces. Using data from the Seventh Population Census, we analyzed mortality patterns by gender and urban‒rural division in 31 provinces. Using a functional regression model, we assessed the influence of fourteen indicators on mortality patterns. Main findings: (1) China shows notable gender and urban‒rural mortality variations across age groups. Males generally have higher mortality than females, and rural areas experience elevated mortality rates compared to urban areas. Mortality in individuals younger than 40 years is influenced mainly by urban‒rural factors, with gender becoming more noticeable in the 40-84 age group. (2) The substantial marginal impact of socioeconomic factors on mortality patterns generally becomes evident after the age of 45, with less pronounced differences in their impact on early-life mortality patterns. (3) Various factors have age-specific impacts on mortality. Education has a negative effect on mortality in individuals aged 0-29, extending to those aged 30-59 and diminishing in older age groups. Urbanization positively influences the probability of death in individuals aged 45-54 years, while the impact of traffic accidents increases with age. Among elderly people, the effect of socioeconomic variables is smaller, highlighting the intricate and heterogeneous nature of these influences and acknowledging certain limitations.
区域人口死亡率与区域社会经济发展相关。本研究旨在确定影响中国各省份死亡率模式的关键社会经济因素。我们使用第七次人口普查的数据，按性别和城乡划分分析了 31 个省份的死亡率模式。使用功能回归模型，我们评估了 14 个指标对死亡率模式的影响。主要发现：（1）中国在不同年龄组的性别和城乡死亡率存在显著差异。男性的死亡率普遍高于女性，农村地区的死亡率高于城市地区。40 岁以下人群的死亡率主要受城乡因素影响，40-84 岁人群的性别差异更为明显。（2）社会经济因素对死亡率模式的巨大边际影响通常在 45 岁以后变得明显，对早期死亡率模式的影响差异较小。（3）各种因素对死亡率有年龄特异性影响。教育对 0-29 岁人群的死亡率有负向影响，这种影响延伸到 30-59 岁人群，并在老年人群体中减弱。城市化对 45-54 岁人群的死亡概率有正向影响，而交通事故的影响则随着年龄的增长而增加。在老年人中，社会经济变量的影响较小，这突出了这些影响的复杂性和异质性，并承认存在一定的局限性。
