Towards food security: Exploring the spatio-temporal dynamics of soybean in India.

India is the world's largest edible oil importer, and soybean oil accounts for a major portion of those imports, with implications for the Indian economy. Despite being the 4th largest globally in terms of harvested soybean area and 5th largest in terms of production, India is still heavily dependent on imports to meet the vegetable oil requirement for its population. It is therefore imperative to understand the dynamics and trends in India's soybean production to help the country achieve self-sufficiency in edible oils. This study provides the first spatially explicit analysis of soybean in India, using long-term spatial and temporal statistics at national and subnational levels, using spatial and temporal statistical analysis models to examine the historical trends and its future prospects. Our analysis details the overall soybean expansion across the country and the increase in production but we also note that the annual growth rate has declined in each consecutive decade even though the area continues to expand. The average national yield has been stagnant at around 1 T/Ha but for some of the low-producing districts, a higher yield of more than 3 T/ha is reported. For most major producing districts, soybean yields are below 1.5 T/Ha. The state of Madhya Pradesh which was the major soybean producer is now matched by the state of Maharashtra in terms of production, however, Madhya Pradesh still has the largest area under soybean. We analyzed soybean hotspot expansion in India and found that the mean center of the soybean area and production has shifted approximately 93 km towards the south and 24 km to the west as the crop is rapidly being adopted in the southern and western parts of India expanding the hotspot in these parts. District-level analysis showed that the total number of districts constituting hotspots of soybean cultivation in India has increased from 29 to 42 in three decades. Furthermore, analysis of soybean oil and meal consumption with respect to the national population, import, export, domestic production, GDP per capita, and price of soybean oil and meal suggests that soybean oil and meal are highly correlated with GDP per capita and population, indicating that consumption of soybean oil and meal is likely to increase as GDP per capita increases, and future demand is expected to rise with the anticipated growth in the Indian population. Increased soybean production can play a significant role in increasing national food security for India and reducing dependence on foreign oil imports and also help the economy with soy meal exports. Understanding the spatiotemporal variability in area and yield will help target interventions to increase production. Given the overall low yields with high variability in production, particularly in recent years primarily due to successive extreme rains and droughts in major producing districts and the overall need to increase production to meet the country's demand, there is a pressing need for government policies and research aimed at narrowing the yield gap and developing soybean varieties that are more productive and resilient to climate change.