To develop a prognostic model for neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy efficacy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma by analyzing the immune microenvironment.

OBJECTIVE

The choice of neoadjuvant therapy for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is controversial. This study aims to provide a basis for clinical treatment selection by establishing a predictive model for the efficacy of neoadjuvant immunochemotherapy (NICT).

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of 30 patients was conducted, divided into Response and Non-response groups based on whether they achieved major pathological remission (MPR). Differences in genes and immune microenvironment between the two groups were analyzed through next-generation sequencing (NGS) and multiplex immunofluorescence (mIF). Variables most closely related to therapeutic efficacy were selected through LASSO regression and ROC curves to establish a predictive model. An additional 48 patients were prospectively collected as a validation set to verify the model's effectiveness.

RESULTS

NGS suggested seven differential genes (ATM, ATR, BIVM-ERCC5, MAP3K1, PRG, RBM10, and TSHR) between the two groups (P < 0.05). mIF indicated significant differences in the quantity and location of CD3+, PD-L1+, CD3+PD-L1+, CD4+PD-1+, CD4+LAG-3+, CD8+LAG-3+, LAG-3+ between the two groups before treatment (P < 0.05). Dynamic mIF analysis also indicated that CD3+, CD8+, and CD20+ all increased after treatment in both groups, with a more significant increase in CD8+ and CD20+ in the Response group (P < 0.05), and a more significant decrease in PD-L1+ (P < 0.05). The three variables most closely related to therapeutic efficacy were selected through LASSO regression and ROC curves: Tumor area PD-L1+ (AUC= 0.881), CD3+PD-L1+ (AUC= 0.833), and CD3+ (AUC= 0.826), and a predictive model was established. The model showed high performance in both the training set (AUC= 0.938) and the validation set (AUC= 0.832). Compared to the traditional CPS scoring criteria, the model showed significant improvements in accuracy (83.3% vs 70.8%), sensitivity (0.625 vs 0.312), and specificity (0.937 vs 0.906).

CONCLUSION

NICT treatment may exert anti-tumor effects by enriching immune cells and activating exhausted T cells. Tumor area CD3+, PD-L1+, and CD3+PD-L1+ are closely related to therapeutic efficacy. The model containing these three variables can accurately predict treatment outcomes, providing a reliable basis for the selection of neoadjuvant treatment plans.