Lee Sanghyun, Moriasi Daniel N, Fortuna Ann-Marie, Mirchi Ali, Danandeh Mehr Ali, Chu Maria L, Guzman Jorge A, Starks Patrick
Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE), El Reno, Oklahoma, USA.
USDA-ARS, Oklahoma and Central Plains Agricultural Research Center, El Reno, Oklahoma, USA.
J Environ Qual. 2025 Jan-Feb;54(1):147-159. doi: 10.1002/jeq2.20565. Epub 2024 May 11.
As global climate change poses a challenge to crop production, it is imperative to prioritize effective adaptation of agricultural systems based on a scientific understanding of likely impacts. In this study, we applied an integrated watershed modeling framework to examine the impacts of projected climate on runoff, soil moisture, and soil erosion under different management systems in Central Oklahoma. The proposed model uses measured climate data and three downscaled ensembles from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) at the water resources and erosion watershed to understand the impact of climate change and various climate conditions under three management systems: (1) continuous winter wheat (Triticum aestivum) under conventional tillage (WW-CT; baseline system), (2) continuous winter wheat under no-till (WW-NT), and (3) cool and warm season forage cover crop mixes under no-till (CC-NT). The study indicates that the occurrence of agricultural drought is projected to increase while erosion rates will remain unchanged under the WW-CT. In contrast, climate simulations imposed on the WW-NT and CC-NT systems significantly reduce runoff and sediment while preserving soil moisture levels. Especially, implementing the CC-NT system can bolster food security and foster sustainable farming practices in Central Oklahoma in the face of a changing climate.
由于全球气候变化对作物生产构成挑战，基于对可能影响的科学理解，优先考虑农业系统的有效适应至关重要。在本研究中，我们应用了一个综合流域建模框架，以研究俄克拉荷马州中部不同管理系统下预计气候对径流、土壤湿度和土壤侵蚀的影响。所提出的模型使用实测气候数据以及来自耦合模型比较计划第6阶段（CMIP6）的三个降尺度集合数据，在水资源和侵蚀流域进行分析，以了解气候变化和三种管理系统下各种气候条件的影响：（1）传统耕作下的连续冬小麦（普通小麦）（WW-CT；基线系统），（2）免耕下的连续冬小麦（WW-NT），以及（3）免耕下的冷季和暖季饲草覆盖作物混合种植（CC-NT）。研究表明，预计在WW-CT系统下农业干旱的发生将增加，而侵蚀率将保持不变。相比之下，施加在WW-NT和CC-NT系统上的气候模拟显著减少了径流和沉积物，同时保持了土壤湿度水平。特别是，面对气候变化，实施CC-NT系统可以加强俄克拉荷马州中部的粮食安全并促进可持续农业实践。
