Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, 68583-0915, USA.
Departamento de Producción Vegetal, Cátedra de Cerealicultura, Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, IFEVA-CONICET, Av. San Martin 4453, C1417, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Ambio. 2022 May;51(5):1158-1167. doi: 10.1007/s13280-021-01674-z. Epub 2021 Nov 29.
Urbanization has appropriated millions of hectares of cropland, and this trend will persist as cities continue to expand. We estimate the impact of this conversion as the amount of land needed elsewhere to give the same yield potential as determined by differences in climate and soil properties. Robust spatial upscaling techniques, well-validated crop simulation models, and soil, climate, and cropping system databases are employed with a focus on populous countries with high rates of land conversion. We find that converted cropland is 30-40% more productive than new cropland, which means that projection of food production potential must account for expected cropland loss to urbanization. Policies that protect existing farmland from urbanization would help relieve pressure on expansion of agriculture into natural ecosystems.
城市化占用了数百万公顷的耕地，而且随着城市的不断扩张，这种趋势还将持续。我们将这种转变的影响估计为，为了获得与气候和土壤特性差异所决定的相同产量潜力，需要在其他地方开垦的土地数量。我们采用强大的空间扩展技术、经过充分验证的作物模拟模型以及土壤、气候和作物系统数据库，重点关注人口众多且土地转换率较高的国家。我们发现，已开垦的耕地比新耕地的生产力高出 30-40%，这意味着对粮食生产潜力的预测必须考虑到预期的城市化造成的耕地损失。保护现有耕地不受城市化影响的政策将有助于缓解农业向自然生态系统扩张的压力。
