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全球甲状腺癌负担的趋势和预测:1990 年至 2030 年。

Trends and projections of the global burden of thyroid cancer from 1990 to 2030.

机构信息

Department of General Practice, Shanghai East Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, Shanghai, China.

Research and Education department, Ningbo No.2 Hospital, Ningbo, China.

出版信息

J Glob Health. 2024 May 17;14:04084. doi: 10.7189/jogh.14.04084.


DOI:10.7189/jogh.14.04084
PMID:38751316
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11109522/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: We aimed to explore the burden of thyroid cancer worldwide from 1990 to 2019 and to project its future trends from 2020 to 2030. METHODS: Based on annual data on thyroid cancer cases from 1990 to 2019 available in the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we calculated the age-standardised incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates for thyroid cancer. We used the estimated annual percentage change (EPAC) to quantify the temporal trends in these age-standardised rates from 1990 to 2019 and applied generalised additive models to project the disease burden from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: The global age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) of thyroid cancer increased from 1990 to 2019, with a higher overall disease burden in women than in men at both study time points. The male-to-female ratios for the ASIR increased from 0.41 in 1990 to 0.51 in 2019, while the ratio for the age-standardised death rate (ASDR) increased from 0.60 to 0.82. The models predicted the United Arab Emirates would have the fastest rising trend in both the ASIR (estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC) = 4.19) and age-standardised DALY rate (EAPC = 4.36) in 2020-30, while Saint Kitts and Nevis will have the fastest rising trend in the ASDR (EAPC = 2.29). Meanwhile, the growth trends for the ASDR and age-standardised DALY rate are projected to increase across countries in this period. A correlation analysis of the global burden of thyroid cancer between 1990-2019 and 2020-30 showed a significant positive correlation between the increase in the ASIR and socio-demographic index (SDI) in low-SDI and low-middle-SDI countries. CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of thyroid cancer is increasing, especially in the female population and in low-middle-SDI regions, underscoring a need to target them for effective prevention, diagnosis, and treatment.

摘要

背景:本研究旨在探讨全球范围内 1990 年至 2019 年甲状腺癌的负担,并预测 2020 年至 2030 年的未来趋势。

方法:本研究基于全球疾病负担(GBD)数据库中提供的 1990 年至 2019 年甲状腺癌病例的年度数据,计算了甲状腺癌的年龄标准化发病率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年(DALY)率。采用估计年度百分比变化(EPAC)来量化 1990 年至 2019 年这些年龄标准化率的时间趋势,并应用广义加性模型预测 2020 年至 2030 年的疾病负担。

结果:全球甲状腺癌的年龄标准化发病率(ASIR)从 1990 年至 2019 年呈上升趋势,在两个研究时间点,女性的整体疾病负担均高于男性。男性与女性的 ASIR 比值从 1990 年的 0.41 增加到 2019 年的 0.51,而年龄标准化死亡率(ASDR)的比值从 0.60 增加到 0.82。模型预测 2020-30 年期间,阿拉伯联合酋长国的 ASIR(估计年度百分比变化(EAPC)=4.19)和年龄标准化 DALY 率(EAPC=4.36)的上升趋势最快,而圣基茨和尼维斯的 ASDR(EAPC=2.29)的上升趋势最快。同时,预计在此期间,各国的 ASDR 和年龄标准化 DALY 率的增长趋势将会增加。对 1990-2019 年和 2020-30 年全球甲状腺癌负担的相关性分析显示,低社会发展指数(SDI)和中低 SDI 国家中 ASIR 的增加与 SDI 呈显著正相关。

结论:全球范围内甲状腺癌的负担正在增加,特别是在女性人群和中低 SDI 地区,这表明需要针对这些人群进行有效的预防、诊断和治疗。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/612c/11109522/26b4e3db698b/jogh-14-04084-F7.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/612c/11109522/3c741be2e275/jogh-14-04084-F5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/612c/11109522/fd8abeab5234/jogh-14-04084-F6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/612c/11109522/26b4e3db698b/jogh-14-04084-F7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/612c/11109522/9f7c5cbab517/jogh-14-04084-F1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/612c/11109522/214e84b3d185/jogh-14-04084-F2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/612c/11109522/70d3745c2807/jogh-14-04084-F3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/612c/11109522/f55acea9cf7c/jogh-14-04084-F4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/612c/11109522/3c741be2e275/jogh-14-04084-F5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/612c/11109522/fd8abeab5234/jogh-14-04084-F6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/612c/11109522/26b4e3db698b/jogh-14-04084-F7.jpg

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[4]
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[7]
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[8]
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[10]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
Burden of breast cancer and attributable risk factors in the North Africa and Middle East region, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Front Oncol. 2023-8-1

[2]
Global long-term trends and spatial cluster analysis of pancreatic cancer incidence and mortality over a 30-year period using the global burden of disease study 2019 data.

PLoS One. 2023

[3]
The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Lancet. 2022-8-20

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Anaplastic Thyroid Cancer: New Horizons and Challenges.

Endocrinol Metab Clin North Am. 2022-6

[5]
Less-Intensive Management Options for Low-Risk Thyroid Cancer.

Endocrinol Metab Clin North Am. 2022-6

[6]
Global pattern of trends in incidence, mortality, and mortality-to-incidence ratio rates related to liver cancer, 1990-2019: a longitudinal analysis based on the global burden of disease study.

BMC Public Health. 2022-3-29

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Circular RNAs and thyroid cancer: Closed molecules, open possibilities.

Crit Rev Oncol Hematol. 2022-5

[8]
The epidemiological landscape of thyroid cancer worldwide: GLOBOCAN estimates for incidence and mortality rates in 2020.

Lancet Diabetes Endocrinol. 2022-4

[9]
A Comparison of the Burden of Thyroid Cancer Among the European Union 15+ Countries, 1990-2019: Estimates From the Global Burden of Disease Study.

JAMA Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg. 2022-4-1

[10]
Importance of Cytopathologic Diagnosis in Early Cancer Diagnosis in Resource-Constrained Countries.

JCO Glob Oncol. 2022-2

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