亚洲及其34个国家和地区头颈癌的时空分析（1990 - 2021年）：来自《2021年全球疾病负担研究》的启示 - Suppr

Space-time analysis of head and neck cancer in Asia and its 34 countries and territories (1990-2021): Implications from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

作者信息

Ding Mengjuan, Yu Shengjian, Chen Yurong, Liu Yewen, Xuan Feng

机构信息

Department of Quality Management, Zhuji Blood Bank, Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province, China.

Department of Radiation Oncology, Zhuji Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University, Shaoxing, Zhejiang Province, China.

出版信息

PLoS One. 2025 Jun 17;20(6):e0326177. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0326177. eCollection 2025.

BACKGROUND

Asia bears a disproportionate burden of head and neck cancer (HNC). This study aimed to analyze its spatial distribution and temporal trends in Asia from 1990 to 2021, projecting trends to 2030.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis of data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, examining disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for HNC and its five major subtypes: nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC), thyroid cancer (TC), laryngeal cancer (LC), lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC), and other pharyngeal cancer (OPC), across five Asian subregions and 34 countries/territories from 1990 to 2021. Temporal trends were evaluated using Joinpoint regression, and projections to 2030 were generated through Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, DALYs for HNC increased in five subregions. In contrast, age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) declined across all subregions except South Asia, with East Asia experiencing the most rapid decrease. In 2021, South Asia recorded the highest DALYs (6,412,639) and ASDR (405.82 per 100,000) for HNC. LOC was the main HNC type in most regions (32.41% - 46.23%), except East Asia, where NPC was most common (38.96%). South Asia also exhibited the highest ASDRs for LC (67.29), LOC (182.29), and OPC (93.00) per 100,000, while Southeast Asia demonstrated the highest ASDRs for NPC (50.77) and TC (18.22) per 100,000. Significant disparities in ASDR trends for HNC subtypes were observed across Asia. By 2030, South Asia is projected to maintain the highest ASDRs for HNC (394.59), LC (62.98), LOC (185.31), and OPC (95.50). East and Southeast Asia are expected to show comparable ASDRs for NPC (approximately 50.00), with Southeast Asia leading in TC ASDR (23.90).

CONCLUSIONS

HNC remains a significant public health challenge in Asia, with substantial heterogeneity in its subtypes across the five subregions. Implementing targeted, region-specific strategies is crucial to mitigating the disease burden.

背景

亚洲在头颈癌（HNC）方面承受着不成比例的负担。本研究旨在分析1990年至2021年亚洲HNC的空间分布和时间趋势，并预测至2030年的趋势。

方法

我们对全球疾病负担研究（GBD）2021的数据进行了二次分析，研究了1990年至2021年期间，五个亚洲次区域以及34个国家/地区的HNC及其五种主要亚型的伤残调整生命年（DALYs）：鼻咽癌（NPC）、甲状腺癌（TC）、喉癌（LC）、唇和口腔癌（LOC）以及其他咽癌（OPC）。使用Joinpoint回归评估时间趋势，并通过贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型生成至2030年的预测。

结果

1990年至2021年期间，五个次区域的HNC伤残调整生命年有所增加。相比之下，除南亚外，所有次区域的年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率（ASDR）均有所下降，东亚下降最为迅速。2021年，南亚的HNC伤残调整生命年（6,412,639）和年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率（每10万人405.82）最高。在大多数地区（32.41%-46.23%），LOC是主要的HNC类型，但东亚除外，东亚最常见的是NPC（38.96%）。南亚每10万人的LC（67.29）、LOC（182.29）和OPC（93.00）年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率也最高，而东南亚每10万人的NPC（50.77）和TC（18.22）年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率最高。亚洲各地HNC亚型的年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率趋势存在显著差异。到2030年，预计南亚的HNC（394.59）、LC（62.98）、LOC（185.31）和OPC（95.50）年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率仍将最高。预计东亚和东南亚的NPC年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率相当（约为每10万人50.00），其中东南亚的TC年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率领先（23.90）。