Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, China.
Department of Nutrition, School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Sun Yat-Sen University, Shenzhen, China.
J Glob Health. 2024 Apr 5;14:04090. doi: 10.7189/jogh.14.04090.
BACKGROUND: This study aims to assess the global incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thyroid cancer between 1990 and 2030. METHODS: Our study analysed Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data from 204 countries, spanning 1990-2019. It focused on age-standardised thyroid cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), using the sociodemographic index (SDI) for assessing socioeconomic levels. Generalised additive models (GAMs) projected thyroid cancer trends for 2020-2030. RESULTS: The global burden of thyroid cancer is predicted to increase significantly from 1990 to 2030. The number of thyroid cancer incidence cases is projected to rise from 233 846.64 in 2019 to 305 078.08 by 2030, representing an approximate 30.46% increase. The ASIR (age-standardised incidence rate) is expected to continue its upward trend (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = 0.83). The age-standardised death rate (ASDR) for thyroid cancer is projected to decline in both genders, more notably in women (EAPC = -0.34) compared to men (EAPC = -0.17). The burden of disease escalates with advancing age, with significant regional disparities. Regions with lower SDI, particularly in South Asia, are anticipated to witness substantial increases in thyroid cancer incidence from 2020 to 2030. The overall disease burden is expected to rise, especially in countries with low to middle SDI, reflecting broader socio-economic and health care shifts. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights significant regional and gender-specific variations in thyroid cancer, with notable increases in incidence rates, particularly in areas like South Asia. These trends suggest improvements in diagnostic capabilities and the influence of socio-economic factors. Additionally, the observed decline in mortality rates across various regions reflects advancements in thyroid cancer management. The findings underline the critical importance of regionally tailored prevention strategies, robust cancer registries, and public health initiatives to address the evolving landscape of thyroid cancer and mitigate health disparities globally.
背景：本研究旨在评估 1990 年至 2030 年间全球甲状腺癌的发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。
方法：我们的研究分析了来自 204 个国家的 2019 年全球疾病负担（GBD）数据。研究重点是年龄标准化甲状腺癌发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs），使用社会人口学指数（SDI）评估社会经济水平。广义相加模型（GAMs）预测了 2020 年至 2030 年甲状腺癌的趋势。
结果：预计全球甲状腺癌负担将从 1990 年到 2030 年显著增加。预计 2019 年甲状腺癌发病病例数为 233846.64 例，到 2030 年将增加到 305078.08 例，增长约 30.46%。年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）预计将继续上升（估计年变化百分比（EAPC）=0.83）。预计男性和女性的甲状腺癌年龄标准化死亡率（ASDR）都会下降，女性更为显著（EAPC=-0.34），而男性则略低（EAPC=-0.17）。疾病负担随年龄增长而增加，存在显著的区域差异。SDI 较低的地区，特别是南亚地区，预计 2020 年至 2030 年甲状腺癌发病率将大幅上升。预计总体疾病负担将上升，尤其是在中低收入国家，这反映了更广泛的社会经济和医疗保健变化。
结论：本研究强调了甲状腺癌在区域和性别方面存在显著差异，发病率特别是在南亚等地区显著上升。这些趋势表明诊断能力的提高和社会经济因素的影响。此外，各地区死亡率的下降反映了甲状腺癌管理的进步。研究结果强调了制定区域性预防策略、建立健全的癌症登记处和公共卫生倡议的重要性，以应对全球甲状腺癌的不断变化的格局，并减轻全球健康差距。
J Glob Health. 2024-5-17
JAMA Netw Open. 2020-6-1
J Travel Med. 2021-12-29
Med Sci (Basel). 2025-4-10
Front Endocrinol (Lausanne). 2025-3-14
Clin Oral Investig. 2025-2-8
Public Health. 2023-9
Nat Med. 2022-10
Int J Mol Sci. 2022-7-31
Ther Adv Endocrinol Metab. 2022-4-17
JAMA Otolaryngol Head Neck Surg. 2022-4-1
Zotero 插件
