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特邀评论:并非全是残余混杂——呼吁对流行病学研究人员和教育工作者进行定量偏倚分析。

Invited commentary: it's not all about residual confounding-a plea for quantitative bias analysis for epidemiologic researchers and educators.

机构信息

Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA 02118, United States.

Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA 02118, United States.

出版信息

Am J Epidemiol. 2024 Nov 4;193(11):1609-1611. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwae075.

DOI:10.1093/aje/kwae075
PMID:38754869
Abstract

Epidemiologists spend a great deal of time on confounding in our teaching, in our methods development, and in our assessment of study results. This may give the impression that uncontrolled confounding is the biggest problem observational epidemiology faces, when in fact, other sources of bias such as selection bias, measurement error, missing data, and misalignment of zero time may often (especially if they are all present in a single study) lead to a stronger deviation from the truth. Compared with the amount of time we spend teaching how to address confounding in data analysis, we spend relatively little time teaching methods for simulating confounding (and other sources of bias) to learn their impact and develop plans to mitigate or quantify the bias. Here we review the accompanying paper by Desai et al (Am J Epidemiol. 2024;193(11):1600-1608), which uses simulation methods to quantify the impact of an unmeasured confounder when it is completely missing or when a proxy of the confounder is measured. We discuss how we can use simulations of sources of bias to ensure that we generate better and more valid study estimates, and we discuss the importance of simulating realistic datasets with plausible bias structures to guide data collection. This article is part of a Special Collection on Pharmacoepidemiology.

摘要

流行病学家在教学、方法开发和研究结果评估中花费大量时间研究混杂因素。这可能给人留下这样的印象:未控制的混杂因素是观察性流行病学面临的最大问题,但实际上,其他来源的偏倚,如选择偏倚、测量误差、缺失数据和零时的不匹配,往往(尤其是如果它们都存在于一项研究中)会导致更大程度的偏离真实情况。与我们在数据分析中花费大量时间教授如何解决混杂因素相比,我们相对较少的时间教授模拟混杂因素(和其他来源的偏倚)的方法,以了解其影响并制定减轻或量化偏倚的计划。在这里,我们回顾了 Desai 等人的伴随论文(Am J Epidemiol. 2024;193(11):1600-1608),该论文使用模拟方法来量化当未测量的混杂因素完全缺失或当混杂因素的替代指标被测量时的影响。我们讨论了如何使用偏倚来源的模拟来确保我们生成更好和更有效的研究估计,并讨论了模拟具有合理偏倚结构的现实数据集以指导数据收集的重要性。本文是药物流行病学专题的一部分。

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本文引用的文献

1
A simulation-based bias analysis to assess the impact of unmeasured confounding when designing nonrandomized database studies.基于模拟的偏倚分析,用于评估在设计非随机数据库研究时,当存在未测量混杂因素时的影响。
Am J Epidemiol. 2024 Nov 4;193(11):1600-1608. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwae102.
2
Illustrating How to Simulate Data From Directed Acyclic Graphs to Understand Epidemiologic Concepts.演示如何从有向无环图模拟数据,以理解流行病学概念。
Am J Epidemiol. 2022 Jun 27;191(7):1300-1306. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwac041.
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Simulation as a Tool for Teaching and Learning Epidemiologic Methods.
模拟作为教学和学习流行病学方法的工具。
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Are all biases missing data problems?所有偏差都是数据缺失问题吗?
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All your data are always missing: incorporating bias due to measurement error into the potential outcomes framework.你所有的数据总是缺失:将测量误差导致的偏差纳入潜在结果框架。
Int J Epidemiol. 2015 Aug;44(4):1452-9. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyu272. Epub 2015 Apr 28.
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Epidemiology. 2011 Jan;22(1):42-52. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e3181f74493.
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Smoking and lung cancer: recent evidence and a discussion of some questions. 1959.吸烟与肺癌:近期证据及若干问题探讨。1959年。
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Creating a demand for bias analysis in epidemiological research.在流行病学研究中引发对偏倚分析的需求。
J Epidemiol Community Health. 2009 Feb;63(2):91. doi: 10.1136/jech.2008.082420.
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Bias formulas for external adjustment and sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounders.未测量混杂因素的外部调整和敏感性分析的偏倚公式。
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Causal diagrams for epidemiologic research.流行病学研究的因果图。
Epidemiology. 1999 Jan;10(1):37-48.