Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA 02118, United States.
Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Boston University, Boston, MA 02118, United States.
Am J Epidemiol. 2024 Nov 4;193(11):1609-1611. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwae075.
Epidemiologists spend a great deal of time on confounding in our teaching, in our methods development, and in our assessment of study results. This may give the impression that uncontrolled confounding is the biggest problem observational epidemiology faces, when in fact, other sources of bias such as selection bias, measurement error, missing data, and misalignment of zero time may often (especially if they are all present in a single study) lead to a stronger deviation from the truth. Compared with the amount of time we spend teaching how to address confounding in data analysis, we spend relatively little time teaching methods for simulating confounding (and other sources of bias) to learn their impact and develop plans to mitigate or quantify the bias. Here we review the accompanying paper by Desai et al (Am J Epidemiol. 2024;193(11):1600-1608), which uses simulation methods to quantify the impact of an unmeasured confounder when it is completely missing or when a proxy of the confounder is measured. We discuss how we can use simulations of sources of bias to ensure that we generate better and more valid study estimates, and we discuss the importance of simulating realistic datasets with plausible bias structures to guide data collection. This article is part of a Special Collection on Pharmacoepidemiology.
流行病学家在教学、方法开发和研究结果评估中花费大量时间研究混杂因素。这可能给人留下这样的印象:未控制的混杂因素是观察性流行病学面临的最大问题,但实际上,其他来源的偏倚,如选择偏倚、测量误差、缺失数据和零时的不匹配,往往(尤其是如果它们都存在于一项研究中)会导致更大程度的偏离真实情况。与我们在数据分析中花费大量时间教授如何解决混杂因素相比,我们相对较少的时间教授模拟混杂因素(和其他来源的偏倚)的方法,以了解其影响并制定减轻或量化偏倚的计划。在这里,我们回顾了 Desai 等人的伴随论文(Am J Epidemiol. 2024;193(11):1600-1608),该论文使用模拟方法来量化当未测量的混杂因素完全缺失或当混杂因素的替代指标被测量时的影响。我们讨论了如何使用偏倚来源的模拟来确保我们生成更好和更有效的研究估计,并讨论了模拟具有合理偏倚结构的现实数据集以指导数据收集的重要性。本文是药物流行病学专题的一部分。