Department of Breast and Thyroid Surgery, Suining Central Hospital, Suining, China.
Cancer Control. 2024 Jan-Dec;31:10732748241253956. doi: 10.1177/10732748241253956.
This investigation leveraged the SEER database to delve into the progression patterns of PTC when left untreated. Furthermore, it aimed to devise and authenticate a nomogram for prognosis prediction for such patients.
We extracted data from the SEER database, focusing on PTC-diagnosed individuals from 2004-2020. To discern disease progression intervals, median survival times across stages were gauged, and the disease progression time was estimated by subtracting the median survival time of a more severe stage from its preceding stage. Prognostic determinants in the training set were pinpointed using both univariate and multivariate Cox regression. Using these determinants, a prognostic nomogram was crafted.
In untreated PTC patients, those in stages I and II had a favorable prognosis, with 10-year overall survival rates of 86.34% and 66.03%, respectively. Patients in stages III and IV had a relatively poorer prognosis. The median survival time of stage III, stage IVA, stage IVB and stage IVC patients was 108months, 43 months, 20 months and 8 months, respectively. The deduced progression intervals from stages III-IVC were 65, 23, and 12 months. In the training set, age, tumor stage, gender, and marital status were identified as independent risk factors influencing the prognosis of untreated PTC, and a nomogram was constructed using these variables.
In the absence of treatment intervention, early-stage PTC progressed slowly with an overall favorable prognosis. However, in mid to advanced-stage PTC, as tumor stage increased, disease progression accelerated, and prognosis gradually worsened. Age, tumor stage, marital status, and gender were independent risk factors influencing the prognosis of untreated PTC, and the nomogram based on these factors demonstrated good prognostic capability.
本研究利用 SEER 数据库深入探讨了未治疗的 PTC 的进展模式。此外，旨在设计和验证用于此类患者预后预测的诺莫图。
我们从 SEER 数据库中提取数据，重点关注 2004-2020 年期间诊断为 PTC 的个体。为了辨别疾病进展间隔，我们评估了各阶段的中位生存时间，并通过从更严重阶段的中位生存时间中减去前一阶段的中位生存时间来估计疾病进展时间。使用单变量和多变量 Cox 回归在训练集中确定预后决定因素。使用这些决定因素，制作了一个预后诺莫图。
在未经治疗的 PTC 患者中，I 期和 II 期患者的预后良好，10 年总生存率分别为 86.34%和 66.03%。III 期和 IV 期患者的预后相对较差。III 期、IVA 期、IVB 期和 IVC 期患者的中位生存时间分别为 108 个月、43 个月、20 个月和 8 个月。从 III 期-IVC 期推断的进展间隔分别为 65、23 和 12 个月。在训练集中，年龄、肿瘤分期、性别和婚姻状况被确定为影响未经治疗的 PTC 预后的独立危险因素，并使用这些变量构建了一个诺莫图。
在没有治疗干预的情况下，早期 PTC 进展缓慢，总体预后良好。然而，在中晚期 PTC 中，随着肿瘤分期的增加，疾病进展加速，预后逐渐恶化。年龄、肿瘤分期、婚姻状况和性别是影响未经治疗的 PTC 预后的独立危险因素，基于这些因素的诺莫图显示出良好的预后能力。
