van de Leemput Ingrid A, Bascompte Jordi, Buddendorf Willem Bastiaan, Dakos Vasilis, Lever J Jelle, Scheffer Marten, van Nes Egbert H
Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Sci Rep. 2024 May 18;14(1):11344. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-61057-8.
Complex systems ranging from societies to ecological communities and power grids may be viewed as networks of connected elements. Such systems can go through critical transitions driven by an avalanche of contagious change. Here we ask, where in a complex network such a systemic shift is most likely to start. Intuitively, a central node seems the most likely source of such change. Indeed, topological studies suggest that central nodes can be the Achilles heel for attacks. We argue that the opposite is true for the class of networks in which all nodes tend to follow the state of their neighbors, a category we call two-way pull networks. In this case, a well-connected central node is an unlikely starting point of a systemic shift due to the buffering effect of connected neighbors. As a result, change is most likely to cascade through the network if it spreads first among relatively poorly connected nodes in the periphery. The probability of such initial spread is highest when the perturbation starts from intermediately connected nodes at the periphery, or more specifically, nodes with intermediate degree and relatively low closeness centrality. Our finding is consistent with empirical observations on social innovation, and may be relevant to topics as different as the sources of originality of art, collapse of financial and ecological networks and the onset of psychiatric disorders.
从社会到生态群落以及电网等复杂系统,都可被视为由相互连接的元素构成的网络。这类系统可能会经历由一连串传染性变化驱动的关键转变。在此我们要问,在一个复杂网络中,这样的系统性转变最有可能从何处开始。直观地看,一个中心节点似乎最有可能是这种变化的源头。确实,拓扑学研究表明,中心节点可能是攻击的致命弱点。我们认为,对于所有节点都倾向于跟随其邻居状态的那类网络(我们称之为双向拉动网络),情况恰恰相反。在这种情况下,由于相连邻居的缓冲作用,一个连接良好的中心节点不太可能是系统性转变的起始点。因此,如果变化首先在外围连接相对较少的节点中传播,那么它最有可能在网络中引发连锁反应。当扰动从外围中间连接的节点开始,或者更具体地说,从具有中等度和相对较低接近中心性的节点开始时,这种初始传播的概率最高。我们的发现与关于社会创新的实证观察结果一致,并且可能与诸如艺术原创性的来源、金融和生态网络的崩溃以及精神疾病的发作等不同主题相关。