Use of HLA marker associations and HLA haplotype linkage to estimate disease risks in families with gluten-sensitive enteropathy.

Based on a two-locus, double recessive model, we derive formulas for the risks that relatives of individuals with gluten-sensitive enteropathy (GSE) will also develop the disease. The calculations take advantage of: the linkage between the HLA locus and one of the two proposed GSE loci, and the preferential association of the HLA-DR3 and DR7 alleles with the GSE disease allele that occupies the HLA-linked locus. We use Bayes' rule to quantitate the strength of the association between the GSE disease allele and the HLA marker allele. This method predicts that siblings of the proband have an overall 10% risk for GSE, which is consistent with observed family data. This predicted risk rises to 30% when siblings are HLA-identical to the proband (also consistent with observed data) or when the sibling has the DR3 allele in the HLA haplotypes not shared with the proband. In those populations where DR7 also is associated with GSE, siblings of probands have a 10% predicted risk for GSE when only one HLA haplotype is shared with the proband and DR7 is included in the unshared haplotype. Other DR alleles are associated with much lower disease risks. By separating individuals into high and low risk groups, HLA typing identifies those individuals who would benefit from further diagnostic procedures. This general strategy should be applicable to other multilocus, marker-associated diseases.