Institute of Civil Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Warsaw, Poland.
Institute of Environmental Engineering, Warsaw University of Life Sciences-SGGW, Warsaw, Poland.
PLoS One. 2024 May 23;19(5):e0303606. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0303606. eCollection 2024.
The paper presents the results of research on the influence of risk factors on the implementation of railway investments in Poland (build stage) and deals with a detailed diagnosis of relation between factors. The application of DEcision MAking Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method for the analyses allowed to develop a cause-and-effect model of key factors and analyse the importance of the factors. Eleven factors identified in eariel studies as the most important risk factors were examined. It was found that the factors: errors in the preparation of tender documents (10.38%), errors in project documentation (10.02%), improperly estimated time of completion of the investment by the Employer (9.82%), internal regulations of PKP Polskie Koleje Państwowe S.A. (Polish State Railways) not coordinated with the provisions of contracts (9.51%) have the highest degree of importance. Factors: too many external institutions involved in the investment process and internal regulations of PKP Polskie Koleje Państwowe S.A. (Polish State Railways) not coordinated with the provisions of contracts, have the greatest net impact on the other factors. The relations between the factors and factors importance are valuable knowledge for engineers, enabling the project to be implemented according to the planned schedule and investment cost.
本文介绍了波兰铁路投资(建设阶段)风险因素影响的研究成果,并对因素之间的关系进行了详细诊断。应用决策试验和评价实验室(DEMATEL)方法进行分析,有助于建立关键因素的因果关系模型,并分析因素的重要性。本文研究了在早期研究中被确定为最重要的风险因素的 11 个因素。研究结果表明,以下因素的重要性最高:招标文件编制错误(10.38%)、项目文件编制错误(10.02%)、雇主对投资完成时间的估计不当(9.82%)、PKP 波兰国家铁路公司内部规定与合同规定不符(9.51%)。此外,研究还发现,因素过多、投资过程涉及的外部机构过多以及 PKP 波兰国家铁路公司内部规定与合同规定不符等因素对其他因素的净影响最大。这些因素之间的关系及其重要性对于工程师来说是非常有价值的知识,可以使项目按照计划进度和投资成本进行实施。