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运用决策分析重新构建野生动物疾病管理问题。

Reframing wildlife disease management problems with decision analysis.

机构信息

Department of Environmental Conservation, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, USA.

Department of Environmental Science and Technology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA.

出版信息

Conserv Biol. 2024 Aug;38(4):e14284. doi: 10.1111/cobi.14284. Epub 2024 May 24.

Abstract

Contemporary wildlife disease management is complex because managers need to respond to a wide range of stakeholders, multiple uncertainties, and difficult trade-offs that characterize the interconnected challenges of today. Despite general acknowledgment of these complexities, managing wildlife disease tends to be framed as a scientific problem, in which the major challenge is lack of knowledge. The complex and multifactorial process of decision-making is collapsed into a scientific endeavor to reduce uncertainty. As a result, contemporary decision-making may be oversimplified, rely on simple heuristics, and fail to account for the broader legal, social, and economic context in which the decisions are made. Concurrently, scientific research on wildlife disease may be distant from this decision context, resulting in information that may not be directly relevant to the pertinent management questions. We propose reframing wildlife disease management challenges as decision problems and addressing them with decision analytical tools to divide the complex problems into more cognitively manageable elements. In particular, structured decision-making has the potential to improve the quality, rigor, and transparency of decisions about wildlife disease in a variety of systems. Examples of management of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, white-nose syndrome, avian influenza, and chytridiomycosis illustrate the most common impediments to decision-making, including competing objectives, risks, prediction uncertainty, and limited resources.

摘要

当代野生动物疾病管理十分复杂,因为管理者需要应对各种利益相关者、多重不确定性以及相互关联的挑战所带来的困难权衡。尽管普遍认识到这些复杂性,但野生动物疾病管理往往被视为一个科学问题,其主要挑战是知识不足。决策的复杂和多因素过程被简化为一个科学努力,以减少不确定性。因此,当代决策可能过于简单化,依赖简单的启发式方法,并且未能考虑到决策所依据的更广泛的法律、社会和经济背景。与此同时,野生动物疾病的科学研究可能与这一决策背景脱节,导致信息可能与相关管理问题没有直接关系。我们建议将野生动物疾病管理挑战重新定义为决策问题,并使用决策分析工具来解决这些问题,将复杂问题分解为更易于认知的要素。具体来说,结构化决策有可能改善各种系统中与野生动物疾病相关的决策的质量、严谨性和透明度。关于严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2、白鼻综合征、禽流感和壶菌病管理的例子说明了决策制定中最常见的障碍,包括相互竞争的目标、风险、预测不确定性和有限的资源。

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