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污染物可能决定低密度白尾鹿种群中新冠病毒疫情的严重程度。

Fomites Could Determine Severity of SARS-CoV-2 Outbreaks in Low-Density White-Tailed Deer () Populations.

作者信息

Rosenblatt Elias G, Cook Jonathan D, DiRenzo Graziella V, Grant Evan H Campbell, Runge Michael C, Mosher Brittany A

机构信息

Rubenstein School of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Vermont, Burlington, Vermont, USA.

Eastern Ecological Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Laurel, Maryland, USA.

出版信息

Transbound Emerg Dis. 2025 Jun 4;2025:1352911. doi: 10.1155/tbed/1352911. eCollection 2025.

Abstract

The establishment of a reservoir species for zoonotic diseases is concerning for both animal and human health. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV)-2, the coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic, has been detected in white-tailed deer () in the United States. Since its initial detection, various studies have documented circulation and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in deer, with human cases suspected of spill-back from infectious deer. A priority for mitigating SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in deer populations is determining the contribution of direct (via aerosols and physical contact) and indirect (via contaminated objects and media) transmission pathways. We expanded existing epidemiological models founded on direct transmission pathways to include three indirect transmission pathways of infection for simulated deer populations, including contaminated water, food waste, and feed piles. Despite lower infection probabilities and transmission hazards (measured by force-of-infection (FOI)) posed solely by these indirect pathways compared to direct transmission pathways, the addition of indirect transmission pathways increased FOI, which had ramifications for the severity of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in simulated deer populations, particularly in populations with low degrees of spread between deer (measured by basic reproductive number; ). We used contact rate models to estimate SARS-CoV-2 spread across deer range in the United States and identified widespread potential for indirect transmission to increase the severity of outbreaks in low-density deer populations. These results indicate that indirect transmission pathways need to be considered in the management of white-tailed deer as a reservoir species for SARS-CoV-2.

摘要

人畜共患病储存宿主物种的出现对动物和人类健康都构成了威胁。严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)是导致COVID-19大流行的冠状病毒,已在美国的白尾鹿(Odocoileus virginianus)中被检测到。自首次检测以来,各种研究记录了SARS-CoV-2在鹿群中的传播和演变情况,怀疑有人类病例是由感染的鹿反向传播所致。减轻鹿群中SARS-CoV-2疫情爆发的一个优先事项是确定直接(通过气溶胶和身体接触)和间接(通过受污染的物体和媒介)传播途径的作用。我们扩展了现有的基于直接传播途径的流行病学模型,将三种间接感染传播途径纳入模拟鹿群中,包括受污染的水、食物残渣和饲料堆。尽管与直接传播途径相比,这些间接途径单独造成的感染概率和传播风险(通过感染强度(FOI)衡量)较低,但增加间接传播途径会提高FOI,这对模拟鹿群中SARS-CoV-2疫情的严重程度产生了影响,特别是在鹿群之间传播程度较低的群体中(通过基本繁殖数衡量;R0)。我们使用接触率模型来估计SARS-CoV-2在美国鹿群范围内的传播情况,并确定了间接传播在低密度鹿群中增加疫情严重程度的广泛可能性。这些结果表明,在将白尾鹿作为SARS-CoV-2的储存宿主物种进行管理时,需要考虑间接传播途径。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/5706/12158583/255ef5037a24/TBED2025-1352911.001.jpg

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Landscape-Scale Epidemiological Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in White-Tailed Deer.
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