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中国股票市场如何对有关新冠疫情的突发新闻做出反应?来自事件研究的证据。

How does Chinese stock market react to breaking news about COVID-19? Evidence from event study.

作者信息

Yu Xiaoling, Xiao Kaitian

机构信息

Business School, Foshan University, Foshan, China.

Research Centre for Innovation & Economic Transformation, Research Institute of Social Science in Guangdong Province, China.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 May 9;10(10):e30949. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e30949. eCollection 2024 May 30.

Abstract

Although the COVID-19 pandemic is no longer considered a public health emergency of international concern, research is ongoing to determine whether and how financial markets have been affected. Using an event study methodology, we examine Chinese stock reactions to breaking news about COVID-19 during 2020-2023, covering nine important events from the first declaration of the novel coronavirus to classifying COVID-19 from top category A to B in China. The empirical results show that the Chinese stock market reacts negatively to bad news, such as the breakout of COVID-19 and the dynamic zero-COVID strategy, and positively to good news, such as COVID-19 vaccine approvals, ending the zero-COVID strategy, and reopening boards. The overall intensity of reactions to bad news is stronger than that to good news. Small-sized stocks react more positively to good news and more negatively to bad news. Different industries have different reactions to different events; however, the sector that responds strongly and negatively to bad news does not have to respond strongly and positively to good news, which, to some extent, reflects their profitability performance during the pandemic. In China, consumer discretionary, utilities and real estate are the most negatively affected by the pandemic, while materials, health care, and energy are the most positively affected. This study has important implications for reminding market participants to pay attention to breaking news announcements about COVID-19.

摘要

尽管新冠疫情不再被视为国际关注的突发公共卫生事件,但相关研究仍在继续,以确定金融市场是否以及如何受到影响。我们采用事件研究方法,考察了2020年至2023年期间中国股市对新冠疫情突发新闻的反应,涵盖了从新型冠状病毒首次宣布到中国将新冠疫情从甲类传染病调整为乙类传染病的九个重要事件。实证结果表明,中国股市对坏消息(如新冠疫情爆发和动态清零策略)反应消极,对好消息(如新冠疫苗获批、结束清零策略和重新开市)反应积极。对坏消息的总体反应强度强于对好消息的反应强度。小盘股对好消息反应更积极,对坏消息反应更消极。不同行业对不同事件有不同反应;然而,对坏消息反应强烈且消极的行业不一定对好消息反应强烈且积极,这在一定程度上反映了它们在疫情期间的盈利表现。在中国,非必需消费品、公用事业和房地产受疫情影响最大,而原材料、医疗保健和能源受疫情影响最大。本研究对于提醒市场参与者关注有关新冠疫情的突发新闻公告具有重要意义。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6e63/11126851/1538927a8fb3/gr1.jpg

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