Pan Shan, He Zhonghua, Gu Xiaolin, Xu Mingjin, Chen Lihui, Yang Shuping, Tan Hongmei
School of Geography and Environmental Science, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang, 550001, China.
National Engineering Technology Research Center for Karst Rocky Desertification Control, Guizhou Normal University, Guiyang, 550001, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 May 27;14(1):12072. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-62027-w.
Timely and accurate agricultural drought monitoring and drought-driven mechanism analysis in karst basins in the context of global warming are highly important for drought disaster monitoring and sustainable ecological development in a basin. In this study, based on MODIS data, meteorological and topographic data and land use data from 2001 to 2020, we used the Sen slope, the Mann-Kendall test and a geographic detector to explore the driving mechanisms of agricultural drought caused by climate change and human activities in the karst basin of southern China from 2001 to 2020. The results showed that (1) the spatial distribution of the TVDI in the karst basin in southern China has obvious regional characteristics, showing a decreasing trend from west to east. (2) According to the interannual trend of drought, the degree of drought in the South China karst basin exhibited a weakening trend over the last 20 years, with the most severe drought occurring in 2003. Regarding the seasonal change in the TVDI, drought in spring, summer and autumn exhibited a decreasing trend, while that in winter exhibited an increasing trend, and the drought intensity decreased in the following order: spring (0.58) > autumn (0.53) > summer (0.5) > winter (0.48). (3) Single-factor detection the results showed that rainfall, temperature and elevation were the main factors driving aridification in the study area; multifactor coupling (mean) drove drought in descending order: rainfall (q = 0.424) > temperature (q = 0.340) > elevation (q = 0.219) > land use (q = 0.188) > population density (q = 0.061) > slope (q = 0.057). Therefore, revealing the mechanism of agricultural drought in karst basins through the study of this paper has important theoretical significance and provides technical guidance for drought relief in karst areas.
在全球变暖背景下，及时准确地监测喀斯特流域的农业干旱及分析干旱驱动机制，对于流域干旱灾害监测和生态可持续发展至关重要。本研究基于2001—2020年的MODIS数据、气象和地形数据以及土地利用数据，运用森斜率、曼肯德尔检验和地理探测器，探究了2001—2020年中国南方喀斯特流域气候变化和人类活动引发农业干旱的驱动机制。结果表明：（1）中国南方喀斯特流域的温度植被干旱指数（TVDI）空间分布具有明显的区域特征，呈现出自西向东递减的趋势。（2）从干旱的年际变化趋势来看，近20年来华南喀斯特流域的干旱程度呈减弱趋势，最严重的干旱发生在2003年。就TVDI的季节变化而言，春、夏、秋季干旱呈递减趋势，冬季呈递增趋势，干旱强度依次为春季（0.58）＞秋季（0.53）＞夏季（0.5）＞冬季（0.48）。（3）单因素探测结果表明，降雨、温度和海拔是研究区干旱化的主要驱动因素；多因素耦合（均值）驱动干旱的程度由大到小依次为：降雨（q = 0.424）＞温度（q = 0.340）＞海拔（q = 0.219）＞土地利用（q = 0.188）＞人口密度（q = 0.061）＞坡度（q = 0.057）。因此，本文通过研究揭示喀斯特流域农业干旱机制具有重要的理论意义，为喀斯特地区抗旱救灾提供了技术指导。
