School of Economics and Management, Xinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, China.
Business College, Kunming City College, Yunnan, China.
PLoS One. 2024 May 29;19(5):e0300601. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0300601. eCollection 2024.
Because the complexity of the external environment has put great pressure on the agricultural economy, making it vulnerable, it is necessary to promote a system of resilience in the agricultural economy so that Chinese agriculture can continue to persevere in the face of serious external uncertainties. Therefore, this paper investigates the spatio-temporal pattern and evolution of the distributional dynamics of China's county-level agricultural economic resilience based on 2000-2020 data covering 2,545 counties. The results are as follows: first, from 2000 to 2020, the mean value of China's county-level agricultural economic resilience showed an obvious upward trend, which indicates that China's agricultural economy gradually increased its ability to resist risks and continued to develop in a favourable manner. Specifically, the county-level agricultural economic resilience index of the northeast region grew the most significantly, while the index of county units in the western region was relatively low. Second, the centre of gravity of the spatial distribution of China's agricultural economic resilience gradually migrated to the northwest, showing a dominant direction from northeast to southwest and a tendency to develop from southeast to northwest. Third, the spatial differences in China's agricultural economic resilience generally showed an upward trend, while county-level differences were the main source of the overall differences, followed by inter-provincial differences, inter-municipal differences and inter-regional differences. Additionally, the contribution of county-level differences to the overall differences fluctuated within the range of 54%-58%. Fourth, there is a possibility of localized convergence in China's agricultural economic resilience, which is continuous in spatial effects and has obvious positively correlated spatial effects at different times and in different county spaces.
由于外部环境的复杂性给农业经济带来了巨大压力，使其变得脆弱，因此有必要在农业经济中推行弹性制度，使中国农业能够在面对严重的外部不确定性时继续坚持下去。因此，本文基于 2000-2020 年覆盖 2545 个县的数据分析了中国县级农业经济弹性的分布动态的时空格局和演变。结果表明：首先，2000 年至 2020 年，中国县级农业经济弹性的平均值呈明显上升趋势，这表明中国农业经济逐渐增强了抵御风险的能力，并继续朝着有利的方向发展。具体来说，东北地区的县级农业经济弹性指数增长最为显著，而西部地区的县级单位指数相对较低。其次，中国农业经济弹性的空间分布重心逐渐向西北移动，呈现出由东北向西南的主导方向和由东南向西北的发展趋势。第三，中国农业经济弹性的空间差异总体上呈上升趋势，而县级差异是总体差异的主要来源，其次是省际差异、市际差异和区域间差异。此外，县级差异对总体差异的贡献在 54%-58%的范围内波动。第四，中国农业经济弹性存在局部收敛的可能性，其在空间效应上是连续的，并且在不同的时间和不同的县级空间中具有明显的正相关空间效应。
