Farooq Sarmad, Naseem Afshan, Ahmad Yasir, Awais Akbar Muhammad, Ullah Mehran
Department of Engineering Management, College of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering (CEME), National University of Sciences & Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan.
School of Business and Creative Industries, University of the West of Scotland, Paisley, PA1 2BE, Scotland, UK.
Sci Rep. 2024 May 31;14(1):12571. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-62803-8.
The automotive industry serves as a crucial support system for the economies of industrialized nations in their pursuit of international market competitiveness. Despite this industry's importance, most developing countries face the challenge of acquiring a reasonable economic position at the global level in the automotive sector for various reasons. The most salient reasons include inconsistent government policies, multiple taxes, investor insecurity, political instability, and currency devaluation. Identifying risks is crucial for a new entrant in the already-established automotive industry. The researchers have used multiple (qualitative and quantitative) techniques to identify and prioritize risks in setting up manufacturing plants. The efforts to tackle these identified risks are undertaken at the domestic and government levels to smoothen the establishment of industry. The risks are first identified, in the current study, by reviewing the previous literature and conducting interviews of the various stakeholders (automotive dealers, managers, and customers). Then this study uses Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) approach and develops a risk exposure (high, medium, or low) matrix for the automotive industry of Pakistan. The findings reveal that the depreciation of local currency against the foreign exchange, oligopoly nature of competition, and low market acceptability of new entrants due to their products' image are the most critical risks the automobile industry faces. These findings will help automotive research institutes in developing national policies that specifically aim to support new players in the automotive industry, particularly in addressing high-priority hazards. The results may also provide valuable insights for new participants seeking to identify and address the key challenges in the Pakistani automotive industry before entering it.
汽车行业是工业化国家在追求国际市场竞争力过程中的关键支撑体系。尽管该行业很重要，但由于各种原因，大多数发展中国家在汽车领域面临着在全球层面获得合理经济地位的挑战。最突出的原因包括政府政策不一致、多重税收、投资者缺乏安全感、政治不稳定和货币贬值。识别风险对于已成熟的汽车行业中的新进入者至关重要。研究人员使用了多种（定性和定量）技术来识别在建立制造工厂时的风险并对其进行优先级排序。在国内和政府层面都在努力应对这些已识别的风险，以促进该行业的建立。在当前研究中，首先通过回顾以往文献并对各类利益相关者（汽车经销商、经理和客户）进行访谈来识别风险。然后本研究采用蒙特卡洛模拟（MCS）方法，为巴基斯坦汽车行业制定了一个风险暴露（高、中或低）矩阵。研究结果表明，当地货币兑外汇贬值、竞争的寡头垄断性质以及新进入者因其产品形象导致的低市场接受度是汽车行业面临的最关键风险。这些研究结果将有助于汽车研究机构制定旨在支持汽车行业新参与者的国家政策，特别是应对高优先级的风险。研究结果还可能为新参与者在进入巴基斯坦汽车行业之前识别和应对关键挑战提供有价值的见解。
