Zhang Boyan, Zou Hui, Duan Detai, Zhou Xinyu, Chen Jianxi, Sun Zhonghua, Zhang Xinxin
School of Life Sciences and Technology, Heilongjiang Genuine Wild Medicinal Materials Germplasm Resources Research Center, Harbin Normal University, Harbin, China.
Heilongjiang Seed Industry Technology Service Center, Harbin, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 Jun 2;14(1):12642. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-63391-3.
Climate change and land use change caused by human activities have a profound impact on ecological security. Simulating the spatio-temporal changes in ecosystem service value and ecological security patterns under different carbon emission scenarios in the future is of great significance for formulating sustainable development policies. This study quantified the four major ecosystem services (habitat quality, water retention, soil erosion, and carbon storage) in Northeast China (NC), identified ecological source areas, and constructed a stable ecological security pattern. The results show that the spatial patterns of soil erosion, carbon storage, water retention, and habitat quality, the four major ecosystem services in NC, are relatively stable in the next 30 years, and there is no significant difference from the current spatial pattern distribution. The SSP1-2.6 carbon emission scenario is a priority model for the development of NC in the next 30 years. In this carbon emission scenario, the NC has the largest ecological resources (191,177 km) and the least comprehensive resistance value (850.006 × 10). At the same time, the relative resistance of the corridor in this scenario is the smallest, and the area of the mandatory reserve pinch points is the least. The ecological corridors in the SSP1-2.6 scenario form a network distribution among the ecological sources, connecting several large ecological sources as a whole. This study fills the knowledge gap in building a stable ecological security pattern in NC under the background of global change, and provides a scientific basis for the decision-making of regional ecological security and land resource management.
人类活动引起的气候变化和土地利用变化对生态安全产生深远影响。模拟未来不同碳排放情景下生态系统服务价值和生态安全格局的时空变化，对制定可持续发展政策具有重要意义。本研究量化了中国东北地区（东北）的四大生态系统服务（栖息地质量、水源涵养、土壤侵蚀和碳储存），确定了生态源区，并构建了稳定的生态安全格局。结果表明，未来30年东北四大生态系统服务（土壤侵蚀、碳储存、水源涵养和栖息地质量）的空间格局相对稳定，与当前空间格局分布无显著差异。SSP1-2.6碳排放情景是未来30年东北发展的优先模式。在此碳排放情景下，东北拥有最大的生态资源（191177平方公里）和最小的综合阻力值（850.006×10）。同时，该情景下廊道的相对阻力最小，强制储备夹点面积最小。SSP1-2.6情景下的生态廊道在生态源之间形成网络分布，整体连接了多个大型生态源。本研究填补了全球变化背景下构建东北稳定生态安全格局的知识空白，为区域生态安全决策和土地资源管理提供了科学依据。
