Forecasting the onset of depression with limited baseline data only: A comparison of a person-specific and a multilevel modeling based exponentially weighted moving average approach.

The onset of depressive episodes is preceded by changes in mean levels of affective experiences, which can be detected using the exponentially weighted moving average procedure on experience sampling method (ESM) data. Applying the exponentially weighted moving average procedure requires sufficient baseline data from the person under study in healthy times, which is needed to calculate a control limit for monitoring incoming ESM data. It is, however, not trivial to obtain sufficient baseline data from a single person. We therefore investigate whether historical ESM data from healthy individuals can help establish an adequate control limit for the person under study via multilevel modeling. Specifically, we focus on the case in which there is very little baseline data available of the person under study (i.e., up to 7 days). This multilevel approach is compared with the traditional, person-specific approach, where estimates are obtained using the person's available baseline data. Predictive performance in terms of Matthews correlation coefficient did not differ much between the approaches; however, the multilevel approach was more sensitive at detecting mean changes. This implies that for low-cost and nonharmful interventions, the multilevel approach may prove particularly beneficial. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).