Trajectories of pain and depressive symptoms among people living with low back pain during the COVID-19 pandemic: a 24-month longitudinal study.

We explored trajectories of pain intensity and depressive symptoms over the first 24 months of the pandemic in people with low back pain. This longitudinal study was conducted alongside the Quebec Low Back Pain Study. Starting in April 2020 and every 3 months until July 2022, 291 participants completed an online survey. Group-based trajectory modeling was used to identify patterns of pain intensity and depressive symptoms. Onset outbreak characteristics were then put in relation with trajectory groups using multivariate logistic regression. The analysis revealed 5 trajectories of pain intensity and depressive symptoms, respectively. The pain trajectories were stable mild (n = 17, 5.8%); stable moderate (n = 103, 35.4%); stable severe (n = 81, 27.8%); U-shape (n = 24, 8.3%), and inverted U-shape (n = 66, 22.7%). The trajectories of depressive symptoms were stable none (n = 58, 19.9%); stable very mild (n = 61, 21.0%); stable mild (n = 85, 29.2%); stable moderate (n = 59, 21.7%); and severe slightly improving (n = 24, 8.3%). Pre-COVID everyday/nearly everyday pain, average pain intensity, and widespread bodily pain were predictive of pain trajectory groups. Higher pre-COVID depression, acute stress disorder, and lockdown measures-related stress were associated with moderate/severe depressive trajectories. Our findings indicated relative stability of pain and depressive symptoms among participants during the COVID-19 pandemic but also highlighted subgroups of people who experienced temporary deterioration or improvement over the first months of the pandemic that then reverted back to baseline levels. Modifiable risk factors were identified before the onset of the pandemic, which could give preventive measures in targeted populations.