Advances in mechanobiological pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models of osteoporosis treatment - Pathways to optimise and exploit existing therapies.

Osteoporosis (OP) is a chronic progressive bone disease which is characterised by reduction of bone matrix volume and changes in the bone matrix properties which can ultimately lead to bone fracture. The two major forms of OP are related to aging and/or menopause. With the worldwide increase of the elderly population, particularly age-related OP poses a serious health issue which puts large pressure on health care systems. A major challenge for development of new drug treatments for OP and comparison of drug efficacy with existing treatments is due to current regulatory requirements which demand testing of drugs based on bone mineral density (BMD) in phase 2 trials and fracture risk in phase 3 trials. This requires large clinical trials to be conducted and to be run for long time periods, which is very costly. This, together with the fact that there are already many drugs available for treatment of OP, makes the development of new drugs inhibitive. Furthermore, an increased trend of the use of different sequential drug therapies has been observed in OP management, such as sequential anabolic-anticatabolic drug treatment or switching from one anticatabolic drug to another. Running clinical trials for concurrent and sequential therapies is neither feasible nor practical due to large number of combinatorial possibilities. In silico mechanobiological pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) models of OP treatments allow predictions beyond BMD, i.e. bone microdamage and degree of mineralisation can also be monitored. This will help to inform clinical drug usage and development by identifying the most promising scenarios to be tested clinically (confirmatory trials rather than exploratory only trials), optimise trial design and identify subgroups of the population that show benefit-risk profiles (both good and bad) that are different from the average patient. In this review, we provide examples of the predictive capabilities of mechanobiological PK-PD models. These include simulation results of PMO treatment with denosumab, implications of denosumab drug holidays and coupling of bone remodelling models with calcium and phosphate systems models that allows to investigate the effects of co-morbidities such as hyperparathyroidism and chronic kidney disease together with calcium and vitamin D status on drug efficacy.