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三十年来中国无牙颌负担的长期趋势:基于 2019 年全球疾病负担研究的 Joinpoint 回归和年龄-时期-队列分析。

Long-term trends in the burden of edentulism in China over three decades: A Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019.

机构信息

Guangxi Key Laboratory of Oral and Maxillofacial Rehabilitation and Reconstruction, College of Stomatology, Hospital of Stomatology, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.

Department of Dermatology and Venerology, The Second Affiliated Hospital, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, China.

出版信息

Front Public Health. 2023 Apr 27;11:1099194. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1099194. eCollection 2023.

DOI:10.3389/fpubh.2023.1099194
PMID:37181712
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10174210/
Abstract

BACKGROUND

To investigate secular trends in edentulism incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) rates in Chinese men and women from 1990 to 2019.

METHODS

Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. The annual percentage change and average annual percentage change were calculated using Joinpoint regression analysis. The age-period-cohort (APC) analysis estimated the independent age, period, and cohort effects.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2019, the crude incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of edentulism in the Chinese population increased year by year, while the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLDs decreased, and the latter was higher in women than in men. The APC analysis showed that the age effect increased in men and women from age 20 to 74 and decreased thereafter. The risk of tooth loss increased with age. However, the relationship was not linear. The temporal effect showed a gradual increase; the risk of missing teeth gradually increased with the changing modern living environment. The cohort effect showed a single decreasing trend, with the early birth cohort having a higher risk of tooth loss than the later birth cohort population. The age, period, and cohort effects were consistent for both sexes.

CONCLUSION

Although the standardized incidence, prevalence, and YLD rate and cohort effect of dentition loss in China are declining, they are still causing a severe burden to China due to the continued aging of the population and the rising period effect. Despite the decreasing trends of the standardized incidence and prevalence of dentition loss and the rate of YLDs, China should develop more effective oral disease prevention and control strategies to reduce the increasing burden of edentulism in the older adult, especially in older women.

摘要

背景

调查中国男性和女性从 1990 年到 2019 年期间无牙颌发生率、患病率和伤残损失寿命年(YLDs)率的变化趋势。

方法

数据来源于 2019 年全球疾病负担研究。使用 Joinpoint 回归分析计算年度百分比变化和平均年度百分比变化。年龄-时期-队列(APC)分析估计了独立的年龄、时期和队列效应。

结果

1990 年至 2019 年,中国人口无牙颌的粗发生率、患病率和 YLDs 逐年增加,而年龄标准化的发生率、患病率和 YLDs 则呈下降趋势,女性高于男性。APC 分析显示,年龄效应在 20 至 74 岁的男性和女性中增加,之后下降。牙齿缺失的风险随年龄增长而增加。然而,这种关系并非线性的。时间效应显示出逐渐增加的趋势,缺失牙齿的风险随着现代生活环境的变化而逐渐增加。队列效应显示出单一的下降趋势,早期出生队列的牙齿缺失风险高于后期出生队列的人群。性别间的年龄、时期和队列效应一致。

结论

尽管中国的无牙颌发生率、患病率和 YLD 率以及队列效应呈下降趋势,但由于人口老龄化和时期效应的上升,无牙颌仍然给中国带来了严重的负担。尽管无牙颌发生率和患病率以及 YLDs 率的标准化呈下降趋势,但中国应制定更有效的口腔疾病预防和控制策略,以减少老年人中无牙颌负担的增加,尤其是老年女性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dbc/10174210/d964bfa9cb62/fpubh-11-1099194-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dbc/10174210/57c4e5b13f86/fpubh-11-1099194-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dbc/10174210/9e599e5dfd22/fpubh-11-1099194-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dbc/10174210/d964bfa9cb62/fpubh-11-1099194-g003.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dbc/10174210/57c4e5b13f86/fpubh-11-1099194-g001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dbc/10174210/9e599e5dfd22/fpubh-11-1099194-g002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/0dbc/10174210/d964bfa9cb62/fpubh-11-1099194-g003.jpg

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