Cañón Buitrago Sandra Constanza, Pérez Agudelo Juan Manuel, Narváez Marín Mariela, Montoya Hurtado Olga Lucia, Bermúdez Jaimes Gloria Isabel
Medical Research Group - Medicine Program - Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manizales, Manizales, Caldas, Colombia.
Clinical Psychology and Health Processes Group, Psychology Program, Faculty of Social and Human Sciences, Manizales University, Manizales, Caldas, Colombia.
Front Psychiatry. 2024 May 24;15:1291299. doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2024.1291299. eCollection 2024.
The risk of suicide and completed suicides among young university students presents critical challenges to mental and public health in Colombia and worldwide. Employing a quantifiable approach to comprehend the factors associated with these challenges can aid in visualizing the path towards anticipating and controlling this phenomenon.
Develop a predictive model for suicidal behavior in university students, utilizing predictive analytics.
We conducted an observational, retrospective, cross-sectional, and analytical research study at the University of Manizales, with a focus on predictive applicability. Data from 2,436 undergraduate students were obtained from the research initiative "Building the Future: World Mental Health Surveys International College Students."
The top ten predictor variables that generated the highest scores (ranking coefficients) for the sum of factors were as follows: history of sexual abuse (13.21), family history of suicide (11.68), medication (8.39), type of student (7.4), origin other than Manizales (5.86), exposure to cannabis (4.27), exposure to alcohol (4.42), history of physical abuse (3.53), religiosity (2.9), and having someone in the family who makes you feel important (3.09).
Suicide involves complex factors within psychiatric, medical, and societal contexts. Integrated detection and intervention systems involving individuals, families, and governments are crucial for addressing these factors. Universities also play a role in promoting coping strategies and raising awareness of risks. The predictive accuracy of over 80% in identifying suicide risk underscores its significance.
The risk factors related to suicidal behavior align with the findings in specialized literature and research in the field. Identifying variables with higher predictive value enables us to take appropriate actions for detecting cases and designing and implementing prevention strategies.
在哥伦比亚乃至全球，青年大学生的自杀风险及自杀既遂事件给精神卫生和公共卫生带来了严峻挑战。采用可量化的方法来理解与这些挑战相关的因素，有助于勾勒出预测和控制这一现象的路径。
利用预测分析方法，开发一个针对大学生自杀行为的预测模型。
我们在马尼萨莱斯大学开展了一项观察性、回顾性、横断面分析研究，重点关注预测的适用性。从“建设未来：世界心理健康调查国际大学生”研究项目中获取了2436名本科生的数据。
在各项因素总和中得分最高（排名系数）的前十个预测变量如下：性虐待史（13.21）、自杀家族史（11.68）、药物治疗（8.39）、学生类型（7.4）、非马尼萨莱斯地区籍贯（5.86）、接触大麻（4.27）、接触酒精（4.42）、身体虐待史（3.53）、宗教信仰（2.9）以及家庭中有让自己感到重要的人（3.09）。
自杀涉及精神病学、医学和社会背景下的复杂因素。包含个人、家庭和政府的综合检测与干预系统对于应对这些因素至关重要。大学在促进应对策略和提高风险意识方面也发挥着作用。识别自杀风险的预测准确率超过80%，凸显了其重要性。
与自杀行为相关的风险因素与该领域专业文献和研究结果相符。识别具有较高预测价值的变量，使我们能够采取适当行动来检测病例，并设计和实施预防策略。
