Caylà J A, Bellmunt J M, Jansà J M, Marco A, Millet J P
Tuberculosis Research Unit Foundation of Barcelona, Provença 286°-2-1ª, 08008 Barcelona, Spain.
ABS Barceloneta, Pg. Marítim de la Barceloneta, 25, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Pompeu Fabra University, Dr. Aiguader, 88, 08003 Barcelona, Spain; Hospital del Mar Institute for Medical Research (IMIM), Dr. Aiguader, 88, 08003 Barcelona, Spain.
Semergen. 2024 Sep;50(6):102274. doi: 10.1016/j.semerg.2024.102274. Epub 2024 Jun 11.
To evaluate the epidemiological evolution and economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic in the European Union (EU) and worldwide, and the effects of control strategies on them.
We collected incidence, mortality, and gross domestic product (GDP) data between the first quarter of 2020 and of 2023. Then, we reviewed the effectiveness of the mitigation and zero-COVID control strategies. The statistical analysis was done calculating the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of two rates and its 95% confidence interval (CI).
In the EU, COVID-19 presented six epidemic waves. The sixth one at the beginning of 2022 was the biggest. Globally, the biggest wave occurred at the beginning of 2023. Highest mortality rates were observed in the EU during 2020-2021 and globally at the beginning of 2021. In mitigation countries, mortality was much higher than in zero-COVID countries (IRR=6.82 [95% CI: 6.14-7.60]; p<0.001). A GDP reduction was observed worldwide, except in Asia. None of the eight zero-COVID countries presented a GDP growth percentage lower than the EU percentage in 2020, and 3/8 in 2022 (p=0.054). COVID-19 pandemic caused epidemic waves with high mortality rates and a negative impact on GDP.
The zero-COVID strategy was more effective in avoiding mortality and potentially had a lower impact on GDP in the first pandemic year.
评估新冠疫情在欧盟及全球的流行病学演变和经济影响，以及防控策略对其产生的效果。
我们收集了2020年第一季度至2023年的发病率、死亡率和国内生产总值（GDP）数据。然后，我们回顾了缓解策略和动态清零防控策略的有效性。通过计算两个率的发病率比（IRR）及其95%置信区间（CI）进行统计分析。
在欧盟，新冠疫情出现了六波流行。2022年初的第六波是最大的一波。在全球范围内，最大的一波出现在2023年初。2020 - 2021年期间欧盟的死亡率最高，2021年初全球死亡率最高。在采取缓解策略的国家，死亡率远高于采取动态清零策略的国家（IRR = 6.82 [95% CI：6.14 - 7.60]；p < 0.001）。除亚洲外，全球范围内均观察到GDP下降。八个采取动态清零策略的国家中，没有一个国家在202年的GDP增长率低于欧盟，2022年有3/8（p = 0.054）。新冠疫情引发了高死亡率的流行波，并对GDP产生了负面影响。
在疫情的第一年，动态清零策略在避免死亡方面更有效，并且对GDP的潜在影响可能更低。
