Divisions of Emergency Medicine.
Infectious Diseases, Ann & Robert H. Lurie Children's Hospital of Chicago, Chicago,Illinois.
Pediatrics. 2024 Jul 1;154(1). doi: 10.1542/peds.2024-065974.
Multiple viral respiratory epidemics occurred concurrently in 2022 but their true extent is unclear. To aid future surge planning efforts, we compared epidemiology and resource utilization with prepandemic viral respiratory seasons in 38 US children's hospitals.
We performed a serial cross-sectional study from October 2017 to March 2023. We counted daily emergency department (ED), inpatient, and ICU volumes; daily surgeries; viral tests performed; the proportion of ED visits resulting in revisit within 3 days; and proportion of hospitalizations with a 30-day readmission. We evaluated seasonal resource utilization peaks using hierarchical Poisson models.
Peak volumes in the 2022 season were 4% lower (95% confidence interval [CI] -6 to -2) in the ED, not significantly different in the inpatient unit (-1%, 95% CI -4 to 2), and 8% lower in the ICU (95% CI -14 to -3) compared with each hospital's previous peak season. However, for 18 of 38 hospitals, their highest ED and inpatient volumes occurred in 2022. The 2022 season was longer in duration than previous seasons (P < .02). Peak daily surgeries decreased by 15% (95% CI -20 to -9) in 2022 compared with previous peaks. Viral tests increased 75% (95% CI 69-82) in 2022 from previous peaks. Revisits and readmissions were lowest in 2022.
Peak ED, inpatient, and ICU volumes were not significantly different in the 2022 viral respiratory season compared with earlier seasons, but half of hospitals reached their highest volumes. Research on how surges impact boarding, transfer refusals, and patient outcomes is needed as regionalization reduces pediatric capacity.
2022 年同时发生了多次病毒性呼吸道流行,但它们的确切范围尚不清楚。为了帮助未来的激增规划工作,我们比较了 38 家美国儿童医院与大流行前病毒性呼吸道季节的流行病学和资源利用情况。
我们进行了一项从 2017 年 10 月至 2023 年 3 月的连续横断面研究。我们计算了每日急诊部 (ED)、住院和 ICU 量;每日手术量;进行的病毒检测;3 天内复诊的 ED 就诊比例;以及 30 天内再入院的住院比例。我们使用分层泊松模型评估季节性资源利用高峰。
与每个医院之前的高峰期相比,2022 季节的 ED 高峰量低 4%(95%置信区间 [CI] -6 至 -2),住院部无显著差异(-1%,95% CI -4 至 2),而 ICU 低 8%(95% CI -14 至 -3)。然而,对于 38 家医院中的 18 家,他们的 ED 和住院高峰期出现在 2022 年。与之前的季节相比,2022 季节的持续时间更长(P <.02)。与之前的高峰期相比,2022 年每日手术量减少了 15%(95% CI -20 至 -9)。与之前的高峰期相比,2022 年病毒检测量增加了 75%(95% CI 69-82)。2022 年的复诊和再入院率最低。
与之前的季节相比,2022 年病毒性呼吸道季节的 ED、住院和 ICU 高峰量没有显著差异,但有一半的医院达到了最高水平。随着区域化减少儿科容量,需要研究激增如何影响住院、拒绝转院和患者结局。