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分析影响蒸散分区的因素。

Analysis of factors affecting evapotranspiration zoning.

机构信息

Department of Water Engineering; Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

Water Engineering and Science Research Institute (WESRI), University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Jun;31(29):42295-42313. doi: 10.1007/s11356-024-33822-9. Epub 2024 Jun 13.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-024-33822-9
PMID:38869804
Abstract

Reference evapotranspiration (ET) has a significant role in water resource planning and management as well as analysis of crop production and other agricultural tasks. Methods for estimating ET may require diurnal/monthly assessments to perceive the consequences of climatic changes on local regions. The spatial and temporal patterns of ET were analyzed in the current work using data from 340 weather stations in Iran. The entropy theory was used to assess the uncertainty of the utilized variables and the modified Kendall test was applied for temporal trend analysis. The interpolation (e.g., kriging) and ordinary least squares (OLS) methods were used for spatio-temporal ET classification/modeling. The spatial analysis demonstrated that the OLS method with a good fit measure (R = 0.985) successfully simulated the spatial relationships of ET with climatic parameters. After examining error indices, the cokriging method with an exponential variogram was introduced as the best method of seasonal and annual ET classification in Iran. Spatially and temporally calculated ET patterns using modified Hargreaves (MHGR) and MODIS methods closely resembled the standard FAO Penman-Monteith (FPM-56) method, all indicating a gradual increase in ET. MHGR and MODIS methods serve as suitable alternatives for estimating ET in various climatic regions of Iran, provided data availability.

摘要

参考蒸散量 (ET) 在水资源规划和管理以及作物生产和其他农业任务的分析中具有重要作用。估算 ET 的方法可能需要进行日/月评估,以了解气候变化对当地的影响。本研究利用伊朗 340 个气象站的数据,分析了 ET 的时空模式。熵理论用于评估所用变量的不确定性,修正的 Kendall 检验用于时间趋势分析。插值(例如,克里金)和普通最小二乘法(OLS)用于时空 ET 分类/建模。空间分析表明,OLS 方法具有良好的拟合度量(R=0.985),成功模拟了 ET 与气候参数的空间关系。在检查误差指数后,引入具有指数变差函数的协克里金法作为伊朗季节性和年度 ET 分类的最佳方法。使用修正的哈格里夫斯 (MHGR) 和 MODIS 方法计算的时空 ET 模式与标准 FAO 彭曼-蒙特斯 (FPM-56) 方法非常相似,均表明 ET 逐渐增加。MHGR 和 MODIS 方法是伊朗各种气候区估算 ET 的合适替代方法,前提是数据可用。

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