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通过有效的封锁措施加强疫苗接种策略以控制疫情。

Enhancing vaccination strategies for epidemic control through effective lockdown measures.

作者信息

Chakraborty Abhi, Kabir K M Ariful

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, 1000, Bangladesh.

出版信息

Heliyon. 2024 May 31;10(11):e32308. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e32308. eCollection 2024 Jun 15.

Abstract

Evolutionary epidemiology models have substantially impacted the study of various infections and prevention methods in the biology field. These models are called Susceptible, Lockdown, Vaccinated, Infected, and Recovered (SLVIR) epidemic dynamics. We explore how human behavior, particularly in the context of disease transmission, is influenced by two intervention strategies: vaccination and lockdown, both of which are grounded in the principles of evolutionary game theory (EGT). This comprehensive study using evolutionary game theory delves into the dynamics of epidemics, explicitly focusing on the transition rate from susceptibility to immunity and susceptibility to lockdown measures. Our research involves a thorough analysis of the structural aspects of the SLVIR epidemic model, which delineates disease-free equilibria to ensure stability in the system. Our investigation supports the notion that implementing lockdown measures effectively reduces the required level of vaccinations to curtail the prevalence of new infections. Furthermore, it highlights that combining both strategies is particularly potent when an epidemic spreads rapidly. In regions where the disease spreads comparatively more, our research demonstrates that lockdown measures are more effective in reducing the spread of the disease than relying solely on vaccines. Through significant numerical simulations, our research illustrates that integrating lockdown measures and efficient vaccination strategies can indirectly lower the risk of infection within the population, provided they are both dependable and affordable. The outcomes reveal a nuanced and beneficial scenario where we examine the interplay between the evolution of vaccination strategies and lockdown measures, assessing their coexistence through indicators of average social payoff.

摘要

进化流行病学模型对生物学领域中各种感染及预防方法的研究产生了重大影响。这些模型被称为易感、封锁、接种疫苗、感染和康复(SLVIR)疫情动态模型。我们探讨了人类行为,特别是在疾病传播背景下,是如何受到两种干预策略影响的:疫苗接种和封锁,这两种策略均基于进化博弈论(EGT)的原理。这项运用进化博弈论的全面研究深入探讨了疫情动态,尤其关注从易感性到免疫以及从易感性到封锁措施的转变率。我们的研究对SLVIR疫情模型的结构方面进行了深入分析,该模型描绘了无病平衡点以确保系统的稳定性。我们的调查支持这样一种观点,即实施封锁措施能有效降低控制新感染流行所需的疫苗接种水平。此外,研究还强调,当疫情迅速蔓延时,将这两种策略结合起来尤为有效。在疾病传播相对较多的地区,我们的研究表明,封锁措施在减少疾病传播方面比单纯依靠疫苗更有效。通过大量的数值模拟,我们的研究表明,只要封锁措施和高效的疫苗接种策略可靠且经济实惠,将它们结合起来就能间接降低人群中的感染风险。研究结果揭示了一个微妙而有益的情景,即我们研究疫苗接种策略的演变与封锁措施之间的相互作用,并通过平均社会收益指标评估它们的共存情况。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/aed9/11170194/3a8258d0d2bb/gr1.jpg

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