Faculty of Education, Yamaguchi University, Yamaguchi, Japan.
Faculty of Psychology, Kobe Gakuin University, Kobe, Japan.
Acta Psychol (Amst). 2024 Aug;248:104352. doi: 10.1016/j.actpsy.2024.104352. Epub 2024 Jun 17.
In decision making under risk, where the consequences of choices vary depending on specific probabilities, a proper interpretation of the presented probabilities is essential. However, because people are not good at evaluating numerical values, such as percentages, efforts have been made to accurately convey presented probabilities using visual aids represented by icon arrays. However, previous studies have suggested that icon arrays produce an overestimation of probabilities under specific conditions. Especially, (a) the arrangement of highlighted icons and (b) the severity of the outcomes represented by highlighted icons can lead to an overestimation of probabilities. By considering the absolute estimation of probabilities indicated by icon arrays and manipulating the aforementioned factors, this study investigated whether these factors could elicit an overestimation of probabilities in an additive manner or whether they have interactive effects. Two studies (total N = 1171) consistently showed that the arrangement of highlighted icons and the outcome severity they indicate induced a perceptual bias in the estimation of the probabilities presented in icon arrays in an additive manner. When the highlighted icons were random and the outcomes they indicate were severe, the probabilities presented by the icon arrays were overestimated. Accordingly, the study not only confirms the robustness of the findings of previous studies but also expand our understanding of the probability overestimation caused by icon arrays. Here, we discuss our findings in terms of the impact of risk-related communication.
在风险决策中，选择的结果取决于特定的概率，因此正确解释呈现的概率至关重要。然而，由于人们不擅长评估数值，如百分比，因此人们努力使用图标数组等视觉辅助工具来准确传达呈现的概率。然而，之前的研究表明，图标数组在特定条件下会产生概率的高估。特别是，（a）突出显示的图标排列和（b）突出显示的图标所代表的结果的严重程度，可能导致概率的高估。本研究通过考虑图标数组所表示的概率的绝对估计，并操纵上述因素，探讨这些因素是否可以以附加的方式引起概率的高估，或者它们是否具有交互作用。两项研究（总 N=1171）一致表明，突出显示的图标排列和它们所表示的结果严重程度以附加的方式在图标数组中呈现的概率估计中引起了感知偏差。当突出显示的图标是随机的，并且它们所表示的结果严重时，图标数组呈现的概率被高估。因此，该研究不仅证实了先前研究结果的稳健性，还扩展了我们对图标数组引起的概率高估的理解。在这里，我们根据与风险相关的沟通的影响来讨论我们的发现。
