Candy Steven G, Bunker James A, Englefield Bruce
Scandy Statistical Modelling Pty Ltd., 70 Burwood Drive, Blackmans Bay, TAS 7052, Australia.
Independent Researcher, Lunawanna, South Bruny Island, TAS 7150, Australia.
Animals (Basel). 2024 May 31;14(11):1641. doi: 10.3390/ani14111641.
A commercial roadkill Virtual Fence (VF) mitigation device (iPTE Traffic Solutions) was used in a field trial to test its effectiveness, for which previously published results have been inconsistent, along a 4.9 km segment of road on Bruny Island, Tasmania. A total of 585 days of monitoring roadkill by species was conducted, with six sections that were alternatively switched on or off according to the Crossover and Multiple Before-After-Control-Impact (MBACI) experimental designs that divided monitoring into "off-on" then "on-off" periods. Aggregate counts, for each period by section combination, from daily counts of Tasmanian pademelons () were modelled, with a total count of 222. The statistical analysis used the MBACI design to estimate the VF effect using a log-odds ratio parameter (LORP) while accounting for local spatio-temporal effects. Both versions of the analysis, either averaged over the three spatial replicates (paired sections) or two temporal replicates (blocks), showed no statistically significant effect of the VF, judged as an LORP estimate not sufficiently below zero. Corresponding percentage reduction estimates of 9% and 16% were derived from the LORP. The corresponding statistical power required to detect a nominal significant reduction of 50% in rate was 0.5 and 0.6, respectively. This study confirms the results from a similar previous field trial in southern Tasmania that this VF is likely to lead to, if anything, only a minor reduction in roadkill.
在塔斯马尼亚州布鲁尼岛一段4.9公里长的道路上,使用了一种商业性的路杀虚拟围栏(VF)缓解装置(iPTE交通解决方案公司)进行实地试验,以测试其有效性,此前公布的相关结果并不一致。按物种对路杀情况进行了总共585天的监测,根据交叉和多组前后对照影响(MBACI)实验设计,将六个路段交替开启或关闭,从而将监测分为“关闭 - 开启”然后“开启 - 关闭”阶段。对塔斯马尼亚帚尾袋貂()各阶段各路段组合的每日计数汇总数量进行建模,总数为222只。统计分析采用MBACI设计,在考虑局部时空效应的同时,使用对数优势比参数(LORP)来估计VF的效果。两种分析版本,无论是在三个空间重复(配对路段)上平均,还是在两个时间重复(区组)上平均,都显示VF没有统计学上的显著效果,即LORP估计值没有充分低于零。从LORP得出的相应减少百分比估计值分别为9%和16%。检测到名义上显著降低50%的发生率所需的相应统计功效分别为0.5和0.6。本研究证实了塔斯马尼亚南部此前一项类似实地试验的结果,即这种VF即使有效果,也可能只会使路杀情况略有减少。