Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK; Department of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, USA.
Department of Psychology, University of Warwick, Coventry, UK.
Cognition. 2024 Sep;250:105858. doi: 10.1016/j.cognition.2024.105858. Epub 2024 Jun 20.
Psychological variability (i.e., "noise") displays interesting structure which is hidden by the common practice of averaging over trials. Interesting noise structure, termed 'stylized facts', is observed in financial markets (i.e., behaviors from many thousands of traders). Here we investigate the parallels between psychological and financial time series. In a series of three experiments (total N = 202), we successively simplified a market-based price prediction task by first removing external information, and then removing any interaction between participants. Finally, we removed any resemblance to an asset market by asking individual participants to simply reproduce temporal intervals. All three experiments reproduced the main stylized facts found in financial markets, and the robustness of the results suggests that a common cognitive-level mechanism can produce them. We identify one potential model based on mental sampling algorithms, showing how this general-purpose model might account for behavior across these very different tasks.
心理变异性（即“噪声”）显示出有趣的结构，这种结构被常见的试验平均法所掩盖。有趣的噪声结构，被称为“典型事实”，在金融市场中观察到（即来自成千上万的交易者的行为）。在这里，我们调查了心理和金融时间序列之间的相似之处。在一系列三项实验中（总共 N=202），我们通过首先去除外部信息，然后去除参与者之间的任何相互作用，逐步简化基于市场的价格预测任务。最后，我们通过要求单个参与者简单地复制时间间隔，去除任何类似于资产市场的特征。所有三个实验都再现了在金融市场中发现的主要典型事实，并且结果的稳健性表明，一个共同的认知水平机制可以产生这些事实。我们基于心理抽样算法确定了一个潜在的模型，展示了这个通用模型如何解释这些非常不同任务中的行为。
