Dong Linlin
College of International Hospitality and Tourism Management, Lyceum of the Philippines University-Batangas, 4200, Batangas, Philippines.
Sci Rep. 2024 Jun 22;14(1):14385. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-65113-1.
Studying the carbon effect of land use in watersheds is important for mitigating global warming, promoting coordinated emission reduction in different regions within the watersheds, and realizing high-quality development of the watersheds. Although a number of scholars have carried out relevant studies in the past, they mainly focused on carbon emissions, rarely involved the carbon balance formed by carbon sources and sinks, and lacked relevant studies on the development of low-carbon economy sub-region. Based on this, this study takes the Yellow River Basin as an example, explores the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions from land use in counties in the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2020, and predicts the spatial pattern of carbon income and expenditure from land use under natural conditions in 2030 and 2060 using the PLUS model; and then superimposes on the main functional area planning, divides 735 counties in the Yellow River Basin into six low-carbon economic development subregions, and analyzes their economic development The model of their economic development is analyzed. The results show that: (1) the spatial and temporal differentiation of land use carbon balance in the Yellow River Basin has changed greatly over the past 40 years, (2) the spatial distribution pattern of land use carbon balance in the natural context in 2030 and 2060 is more similar to that in 1990, (3) the carbon emission reduction potentials and pattern optimization of the different low-carbon economic development subregions differ greatly, and they have different low-carbon economic development patterns. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis for scientifically and rationally formulating economic policies for low-carbon development in the counties of the Yellow River Basin, and also provide an important reference for related studies in other similar basins or regions in the world.
研究流域土地利用的碳效应对于缓解全球变暖、促进流域内不同区域协同减排以及实现流域高质量发展具有重要意义。尽管过去已有不少学者开展了相关研究，但主要集中在碳排放方面，很少涉及碳源与碳汇形成的碳平衡，且缺乏对低碳经济分区发展的相关研究。基于此，本研究以黄河流域为例，探究1980—2020年黄河流域各县土地利用碳排放的时空演变，并运用PLUS模型预测2030年和2060年自然条件下土地利用碳收支的空间格局；然后叠加主体功能区规划，将黄河流域735个县划分为六个低碳经济发展子区域，并分析其经济发展模式。结果表明：（1）黄河流域土地利用碳平衡的时空分异在过去40年里变化较大；（2）2030年和2060年自然情景下土地利用碳平衡的空间分布格局与1990年较为相似；（3）不同低碳经济发展子区域的碳排放减排潜力和格局优化差异较大，具有不同的低碳经济发展模式。本研究结果为科学合理制定黄河流域各县低碳发展经济政策提供了理论依据，也为世界其他类似流域或区域的相关研究提供了重要参考。
