Zhang Qiuyi, Huang Ronghui, Zhu Changhua, Huang Liyun, Yang Di
College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Fujian University of Technology, Fuzhou, 350118, China.
Key Laboratory of Monitoring, Evaluation and Early Warning of Territorial Spatial Planning Implementation, Ministry of Natural Resources (LMEE), Chongqing, 401147, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 19;15(1):30382. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-13961-w.
In the pursuit of sustainable urban planning, integrating land use simulation with carbon storage assessment is crucial for achieving the "dual carbon" goals. This study focuses on the Fuzhou Metropolitan Area, utilizing land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020. By establishing three future development scenarios-natural, urban, and dual-carbon target scenarios-based on the "Fuzhou Metropolitan Area Development Plan," this research employ the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models. The analysis reveals that from 2000 to 2020, the areas of cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and water bodies decreased, while construction land and bare land increased. Notably, the nighttime lighting factor significantly impacts land use changes, with elevation playing a crucial role in changes to water bodies and bare land. Under natural and urban development scenarios, carbon storage exhibits a downward trend, whereas the dual-carbon target scenario limits construction land expansion and reverses this trend, resulting in increased carbon storage. Based on these insights, this study proposes a three-stage urban planning strategy: strengthening carbon assessment in the early stages, fostering cross-departmental collaboration during implementation, and ensuring dynamic monitoring and adaptive adjustments in the later stages. This approach aims to harmonize urban development with ecological conservation, thereby maximizing economic and ecological benefits and supporting the achievement of the "dual carbon" policy goals.
在追求可持续城市规划的过程中，将土地利用模拟与碳储存评估相结合对于实现“双碳”目标至关重要。本研究聚焦于福州大都市区，利用了2000年、2010年和2020年的土地利用数据。基于《福州大都市区发展规划》，通过建立自然、城市和双碳目标三种未来发展情景，本研究采用了土地利用优化模拟（PLUS）模型和生态系统服务与权衡综合评估（InVEST）模型。分析表明，2000年至2020年期间，耕地、林地、草地和水体面积减少，而建设用地和裸地面积增加。值得注意的是，夜间照明因素对土地利用变化有显著影响，海拔对水体和裸地的变化起关键作用。在自然和城市发展情景下，碳储存呈下降趋势，而双碳目标情景限制了建设用地扩张并扭转了这一趋势，导致碳储存增加。基于这些见解，本研究提出了一个三阶段的城市规划策略：在早期加强碳评估，在实施过程中促进跨部门协作，在后期确保动态监测和适应性调整。这种方法旨在使城市发展与生态保护相协调，从而实现经济和生态效益最大化，并支持“双碳”政策目标的实现。
