Shi Hujuan, Xia Yihang, Cheng Yiran, Liang Pengcheng, Cheng Mingmei, Zhang Baoliang, Liang Zhen, Wang Yanzhong, Xie Wanqing
Department of Intelligent Medical Engineering, School of Biomedical Engineering, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230011, China.
Department of Psychology, School of Mental Health and Psychological Sciences, Anhui Medical University, Hefei 230011, China.
Eur Heart J Qual Care Clin Outcomes. 2024 Jun 25. doi: 10.1093/ehjqcco/qcae049.
Ischemic heart disease (IHD) has been a significant public health issue worldwide. This study aims to predict the global burden of IHD in a timely and comprehensive manner.
Incidence, prevalence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for IHD from 1990 to 2021 were derived from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database and three models (linear, exponential, and Poisson regression) were used to estimate their trends over time at the global, regional, and national levels by age, sex, and country groups, with the gross domestic product per capita was applied to adjust the model. The model results revealed that the global burden of IHD is expected to increase continuously by 2050. By 2050, global IHD incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs are projected to reach 67.3 million, 510 million, 16 million, and 302 million, respectively, which represents an increase of 116%, 106%, 80%, and 62% from 2021. Moreover, the results showed that regions with lower socio-demographic index (SDI) bore a greater burden of IHD than those with higher SDI, with men having a higher burden of IHD than women. People over 70 years old account for a major part of the burden of IHD, and premature death of IHD is also becoming more serious.
The global burden of IHD will increase further by 2050, potentially due to population aging and economic disparities. Hence, it is necessary to strengthen the prevention of IHD and formulate targeted strategies according to different SDI regions and special populations.
缺血性心脏病（IHD）一直是全球重大的公共卫生问题。本研究旨在及时、全面地预测IHD的全球负担。
1990年至2021年IHD的发病率、患病率、死亡人数和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）数据来自《2021年全球疾病负担》数据库，并使用三种模型（线性、指数和泊松回归）按年龄、性别和国家组在全球、区域和国家层面估计其随时间的趋势，同时应用人均国内生产总值对模型进行调整。模型结果显示，到2050年IHD的全球负担预计将持续增加。到2050年，全球IHD发病率、患病率、死亡人数和DALYs预计将分别达到6730万、5.1亿、1600万和3.02亿，较2021年分别增长116%、106%、80%和62%。此外，结果表明，社会人口指数（SDI）较低的地区比SDI较高的地区承担着更重的IHD负担，男性的IHD负担高于女性。70岁以上人群占IHD负担的主要部分，IHD过早死亡问题也日益严重。
到2050年IHD的全球负担将进一步增加，这可能是由于人口老龄化和经济差距所致。因此，有必要加强IHD的预防，并根据不同的SDI地区和特殊人群制定针对性策略。
