Epidemic Intelligence Service, Division of Workforce Development, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Washington State Department of Health, 1610 NE 150th St, Shoreline, WA 98155 (
Prev Chronic Dis. 2024 Jun 27;21:E47. doi: 10.5888/pcd21.230433.
After SARS-CoV-2 infection, some people will experience long-term sequelae known as post-COVID-19 condition (PCC). Although PCC is recognized as a public health problem, estimates of the prevalence of PCC are sparse. We described a framework for estimating the incidence and prevalence of PCC by population subgroups and geography over time in Washington State.
We collected data on reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations and estimated SARS-CoV-2 infections in Washington State from March 2020 through October 2023. The reported case data were incorporated with parameter estimates from published articles and prevalence estimates from the Household Pulse Survey into a mathematical compartmental model of PCC progression. The model used differential equations to describe how the population of people with PCC moved through the model's various stages. This framework allowed us to integrate data on age group, sex, race and ethnicity, vaccination status, and county to estimate incidence and prevalence of PCC for each subgroup.
Our model indicated that 6.4% (95% CI, 5.9%-6.8%) of all adults in Washington State were experiencing PCC as of October 2023. In addition to temporal differences in PCC prevalence and incidence, we found substantial differences across age groups, race and ethnicity, and sex. Geographic heterogeneity was pronounced, with the highest rates of PCC in central and eastern Washington.
Estimation of PCC prevalence is essential for addressing PCC as a public health problem. Responding to PCC will require continued surveillance, research, and dedicated financial and public health action. This analysis, accounting for heterogeneities, highlights disparities in the prevalence, incidence, and distribution of PCC in Washington State and can better guide awareness and response efforts.
在感染 SARS-CoV-2 后，一些人会出现长期后遗症，即所谓的新冠后疾病（PCC）。尽管 PCC 被认为是一个公共卫生问题，但对其流行率的估计却很少。我们描述了一个框架，用于按人群亚组和地理位置随时间估算华盛顿州 PCC 的发病率和患病率。
我们收集了报告的 COVID-19 病例和住院数据，并估计了 2020 年 3 月至 2023 年 10 月期间华盛顿州的 SARS-CoV-2 感染情况。将报告的病例数据与已发表文章中的参数估计值和家庭脉搏调查中的患病率估计值相结合，纳入到 PCC 进展的数学房室模型中。该模型使用微分方程来描述 PCC 人群如何在模型的各个阶段移动。该框架使我们能够整合年龄组、性别、种族和民族、疫苗接种状况和县的数据，以估算每个亚组的 PCC 发病率和患病率。
我们的模型表明，截至 2023 年 10 月，华盛顿州所有成年人中有 6.4%（95%CI，5.9%-6.8%）患有 PCC。除了 PCC 流行率和发病率的时间差异外，我们还发现了年龄组、种族和民族以及性别的显著差异。地理异质性显著，中东部华盛顿州的 PCC 发病率最高。
估计 PCC 的患病率对于解决 PCC 作为公共卫生问题至关重要。应对 PCC 需要持续监测、研究以及专门的财务和公共卫生行动。这项分析考虑了异质性，突出了华盛顿州 PCC 的患病率、发病率和分布的差异，并能更好地指导意识和应对工作。
