Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Academy of Medical Sciences, Tongji Shanxi Hospital, Third Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, 030032, PR China.
Third Hospital of Shanxi Medical University, Shanxi Bethune Hospital, Shanxi Academy of Medical Sciences, Tongji Shanxi Hospital, Taiyuan, Shanxi, 030032, PR China.
Curr Probl Cardiol. 2024 Sep;49(9):102735. doi: 10.1016/j.cpcardiol.2024.102735. Epub 2024 Jun 29.
Myocarditis is increasingly recognized as a critical health issue, particularly among youth and middle-aged populations. This study aims to analyze the global burden and trends of myocarditis in these age groups to emphasize the need for region-specific prevention and treatment strategies.
Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study (1990-2019), we evaluated the age-standardized rates (ASR) of myocarditis in individuals aged 10 to 54 years. We calculated average annual percentage changes (AAPC) and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC). Additionally, we examined the correlation between myocarditis incidence and the Human Development Index (HDI) and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Age and sex trends in myocarditis were analyzed, and Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models were used to forecast prevalence trends up to 2050.
The High-income Asia Pacific region had the highest ASR of myocarditis, while North Africa and the Middle East had the lowest. North Africa and the Middle East also experienced the fastest average annual growth in ASR, whereas High-income North America saw the most significant decline. Correlational analysis showed that countries with a high SDI exhibited higher myocarditis ASR. The burden of myocarditis was greater among males than females, with this disparity increasing with age. Projections indicate a stable trend in the incidence of myocarditis among the youth and middle-aged population up to 2050, although the total number of cases is expected to rise.
Our study reveals a significant upward trend in myocarditis among youth and middle-aged populations, highlighting the urgency for early monitoring and preventative strategies.
心肌炎作为一个严重的健康问题，尤其是在青年和中年人群中，其发病率正日益受到关注。本研究旨在分析这一年龄段人群中心肌炎的全球负担和趋势，以强调制定特定区域预防和治疗策略的必要性。
本研究使用来自全球疾病负担研究（GBD）的数据（1990-2019 年），评估了年龄标准化率（ASR）在 10-54 岁人群中心肌炎的发生率。我们计算了平均年度百分比变化（AAPC）和估计的年度百分比变化（EAPC）。此外，我们还考察了心肌炎发病率与人类发展指数（HDI）和社会发展指数（SDI）之间的相关性。分析了心肌炎的年龄和性别趋势，并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型预测了 2050 年之前的患病率趋势。
高收入亚太地区心肌炎的 ASR 最高，而北非和中东地区的 ASR 最低。北非和中东地区的 ASR 也呈现出最快的年均增长率，而高收入北美地区的 ASR 则呈现出最大的降幅。相关性分析表明，SDI 较高的国家心肌炎 ASR 较高。心肌炎的负担在男性中高于女性，且随着年龄的增长，这种差异也在不断增大。预测结果显示，2050 年之前，青年和中年人群中心肌炎的发病率将保持稳定，尽管病例总数预计将会有所上升。
本研究揭示了青年和中年人群中心肌炎发病率的显著上升趋势，突显了早期监测和预防策略的紧迫性。
