Wang Weichun, Chen Xiaofeng
Department of Cardiology, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, 362000, China.
Aging Clin Exp Res. 2025 Mar 24;37(1):102. doi: 10.1007/s40520-025-02979-9.
Geriatric myocarditis represents a significant public health concern, directly influencing overall health and potentially leading to various cardiac diseases. This study seeks to quantify the burden of geriatric myocarditis over three decades (1992-2021) and provide forecasts for future disease burden.
Data on geriatric myocarditis from 1992 to 2021 was obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study, offering insights into the incidence of the condition, categorized by gender. The Joinpoint regression model was utilized to identify shifts in epidemiological trends, while decomposition analysis helped identify the underlying factors contributing to these trends. To project future incidence, deaths and DALYs (Disability-Adjusted Life Years), the Norpred and Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) models were employed.
In 2021, the global ASIR (per 100,000) of elderly myocarditis was 47.57 (27.52-73.08), with 505,147 (292,319-774,561) cases. Age-standardized deaths(per 100,000) were 2.07 (1.55-2.51), totaling 20,718 (15,525-25,085) deaths, and age-standardized DALYs(per 100,000) were 29.77 (22.60-35.81), with 308,101 (234,226-370,674) DALYs. Greenland, Canada, and Austria had the highest ASIR(per 100,000), while Romania, Kazakhstan, and Croatia had the highest age-standardized deaths(per 100,000), and Romania, Kazakhstan, and Guyana had the highest age-standardized DALYs(per 100,000). Joinpoint Regression analysis revealed a recent upward trend in global incidence after a previous decline, consistent across genders and SDI regions. Deaths and DALYs showed declining trends globally, though male deaths recently increased. Decomposition analysis identified population growth and aging as key drivers of increased cases, deaths, and DALYs. Based on the nordpred model, by 2045, the global ASIR(per 100,000) is predicted to be 47.27, with 1,005,593 cases, age-standardized deaths(per 100,000) of 2.02, totaling 48,501 deaths, and age-standardized DALYs(per 100,000) of 26.21, with 595,694 DALYs. The BAPC model predicts a global ASIR(per 100,000) of 51.82, with 1,091,195 cases, age-standardized deaths(per 100,000) of 3.67, totaling 87,145 deaths, and age-standardized DALYs(per 100,000) of 49.09, with 1,084,738 DALYs.
As of 2021, the ASIR(per 100,000) of myocarditis in the elderly population showed a decline compared to 1992; however, a recent upward trend has been identified. Considering ongoing population growth, the number of myocarditis cases among the elderly is anticipated to increase.
老年心肌炎是一个重大的公共卫生问题，直接影响整体健康，并可能导致各种心脏疾病。本研究旨在量化三十年间（1992 - 2021年）老年心肌炎的负担，并对未来疾病负担进行预测。
从全球疾病负担研究中获取1992年至2021年老年心肌炎的数据，以了解按性别分类的该病发病率。采用Joinpoint回归模型确定流行病学趋势的变化，同时分解分析有助于确定导致这些趋势的潜在因素。为预测未来的发病率、死亡数和伤残调整生命年（DALYs），使用了Norpred模型和贝叶斯年龄 - 时期 - 队列（BAPC）模型。
2021年，全球老年心肌炎的年龄标准化发病率（每10万人）为47.57（27.52 - 73.08），病例数为505,147（292,319 - 774,561）例。年龄标准化死亡率（每10万人）为2.07（1.55 - 2.51），死亡总数为20,718（15,525 - 25,085）例，年龄标准化伤残调整生命年（每10万人）为29.77（22.60 - 35.81），伤残调整生命年数为308,101（234,226 - 370,674）。格陵兰、加拿大和奥地利的年龄标准化发病率（每10万人）最高，而罗马尼亚、哈萨克斯坦和克罗地亚的年龄标准化死亡率（每10万人）最高，罗马尼亚、哈萨克斯坦和圭亚那的年龄标准化伤残调整生命年（每10万人）最高。Joinpoint回归分析显示，在先前下降之后，全球发病率最近呈上升趋势，在各性别和社会人口指数（SDI）区域均一致。全球范围内，死亡数和伤残调整生命年呈下降趋势，不过男性死亡数最近有所增加。分解分析确定人口增长和老龄化是病例数、死亡数和伤残调整生命年增加的主要驱动因素。根据Norpred模型，到2045年，预计全球年龄标准化发病率（每10万人）将为47.27，病例数为1,005,593例，年龄标准化死亡率（每10万人）为2.02，死亡总数为48,501例，年龄标准化伤残调整生命年（每10万人）为26.21，伤残调整生命年数为595,694。BAPC模型预测全球年龄标准化发病率（每10万人）为51.82，病例数为1,091,195例，年龄标准化死亡率（每10万人）为3.67，死亡总数为87,145例，年龄标准化伤残调整生命年（每10万人）为49.09，伤残调整生命年数为1,084,738。
截至2021年，老年人群中心肌炎的年龄标准化发病率（每10万人）与1992年相比有所下降；然而，最近已发现呈上升趋势。考虑到人口持续增长，预计老年人心肌炎病例数将会增加。
