Li Changjun, Xu Kun, Du Aijia, Fu Ningning, Xu Zhaolong, Chang Qinghua
Department of General Practice, the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, China.
Department of Cardiology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, China.
Heart. 2025 Aug 26;111(18):867-876. doi: 10.1136/heartjnl-2024-325523.
Myocarditis is a global epidemic that causes various medical conditions associated with an increased incidence and death numbers. This study aimed to investigate the trends in myocarditis-associated incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) with health inequalities, risk factors, and predict the disease burden, thereby mitigating the health hazards of myocarditis.
This was a modelling study that used data from the Global Burden of Diseases 2021, from which myocarditis was included in the analysis. Incidence, death, DALYs, age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardised DALYs rate (ASDR), cases change, corresponding estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), Slope Inequality of Index (SII) and Concentration Index were analysed.
From 1990 to 2021, incidence and death cases increased by 66.88% and 45.94%, respectively. The myocarditis-associated incidence and death cases increased in all five sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. Among the five SDI regions, the High SDI region had the highest myocarditis-associated ASIR with the least ASMR and ASDR in 2021. Regionally, Central Asia had the largest increase in EAPC of ASIR, ASMR and ASDR. Among 204 countries, Japan had the highest ASIR in 2021 and Romania had the highest ASMR and ASDR. Between 1990 and 2021, the SII and Concentration Index for DALYs have shown declining trends. The extreme temperatures were major contributors to the burden of myocarditis during 1990-2021. The projections suggested that the myocarditis-related global number of new cases and death would increase over the next 15 years. There may be upward trends in people of 15+of incidence number and 40+of death and DALYs number.
Myocarditis is an increasing global health challenge with rising incidence and death. Management of extreme temperatures remains a major challenge. The number of incidence, death and DALYs in different age groups would continue to grow over the next 15 years. Therefore, measures should be taken to target risk factors and high-risk groups.
心肌炎是一种全球流行疾病，会引发各种与发病率和死亡人数增加相关的病症。本研究旨在调查心肌炎相关的发病率、死亡率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）的趋势，以及健康不平等、风险因素，并预测疾病负担，从而减轻心肌炎对健康的危害。
这是一项建模研究，使用了《2021年全球疾病负担》的数据，其中包括对心肌炎的分析。分析了发病率、死亡率、DALYs、年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）、年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）、年龄标准化DALYs率（ASDR）、病例变化、相应的估计年百分比变化（EAPC）、指数斜率不平等（SII）和集中指数。
1990年至2021年，发病率和死亡病例分别增加了66.88%和45.94%。在所有五个社会人口指数（SDI）区域，心肌炎相关的发病率和死亡病例均有所增加。在五个SDI区域中，高SDI区域在2021年的心肌炎相关ASIR最高，ASMR和ASDR最低。在区域方面，中亚的ASIR、ASMR和ASDR的EAPC增长幅度最大。在204个国家中，日本在2021年的ASIR最高，罗马尼亚的ASMR和ASDR最高。1990年至2021年期间，DALYs的SII和集中指数呈下降趋势。极端温度是1990 - 2021年期间心肌炎负担的主要促成因素。预测表明，在未来15年，全球心肌炎相关的新病例和死亡人数将会增加。15岁及以上人群的发病率以及40岁及以上人群的死亡和DALYs数量可能呈上升趋势。
心肌炎是一个日益严峻的全球健康挑战，发病率和死亡率不断上升。应对极端温度仍然是一项重大挑战。在未来15年，不同年龄组的发病率、死亡和DALYs数量将继续增长。因此，应针对风险因素和高危人群采取措施。
