Klontzas Michail E, Ri Motonari, Koltsakis Emmanouil, Stenqvist Erik, Kalarakis Georgios, Boström Erik, Kechagias Aristotelis, Schizas Dimitrios, Rouvelas Ioannis, Tzortzakakis Antonios
Department for Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology (CLINTEC), Division of Radiology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Medical Imaging, University Hospital of Heraklion, Crete, Greece; Computational BioMedicine Laboratory, Institute of Computer Science, Foundation for Research and Technology (FORTH), Heraklion, Crete, Greece; Department of Radiology, School of Medicine, University of Crete, Voutes Campus, Heraklion, Greece.
Department of Clinical Science, Intervention and Technology (CLINTEC), Division of Surgery and Oncology, Karolinska Institutet, Solna, Sweden; Department of Upper Abdominal Diseases, Karolinska University Hospital, Huddinge, Stockholm, Sweden.
Acad Radiol. 2024 Dec;31(12):4878-4885. doi: 10.1016/j.acra.2024.06.026. Epub 2024 Jul 2.
RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Surgery in combination with chemo/radiotherapy is the standard treatment for locally advanced esophageal cancer. Even after the introduction of minimally invasive techniques, esophagectomy carries significant morbidity and mortality. One of the most common and feared complications of esophagectomy is anastomotic leakage (AL). Our work aimed to develop a multimodal machine-learning model combining CT-derived and clinical data for predicting AL following esophagectomy for esophageal cancer. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 471 patients were prospectively included (Jan 2010-Dec 2022). Preoperative computed tomography (CT) was used to evaluate celia trunk stenosis and vessel calcification. Clinical variables, including demographics, disease stage, operation details, postoperative CRP, and stage, were combined with CT data to build a model for AL prediction. Data was split into 80%:20% for training and testing, and an XGBoost model was developed with 10-fold cross-validation and early stopping. ROC curves and respective areas under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV, and F1-scores were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 117 patients (24.8%) exhibited post-operative AL. The XGboost model achieved an AUC of 79.2% (95%CI 69%-89.4%) with a specificity of 77.46%, a sensitivity of 65.22%, PPV of 48.39%, NPV of 87.3%, and F1-score of 56%. Shapley Additive exPlanation analysis showed the effect of individual variables on the result of the model. Decision curve analysis showed that the model was particularly beneficial for threshold probabilities between 15% and 48%. CONCLUSION: A clinically relevant multimodal model can predict AL, which is especially valuable in cases with low clinical probability of AL.
原理与目的:手术联合化疗/放疗是局部晚期食管癌的标准治疗方法。即使引入了微创技术,食管切除术仍具有显著的发病率和死亡率。食管切除术最常见且令人担忧的并发症之一是吻合口漏(AL)。我们的工作旨在开发一种结合CT衍生数据和临床数据的多模态机器学习模型,用于预测食管癌食管切除术后的AL。 材料与方法:前瞻性纳入471例患者(2010年1月至2022年12月)。术前计算机断层扫描(CT)用于评估腹腔干狭窄和血管钙化。将包括人口统计学、疾病分期、手术细节、术后CRP和分期等临床变量与CT数据相结合,构建AL预测模型。数据按80%:20%分为训练集和测试集,并采用10折交叉验证和早期停止策略开发XGBoost模型。计算ROC曲线及相应的曲线下面积(AUC)、敏感性、特异性、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和F1分数。 结果:共有117例患者(24.8%)出现术后AL。XGboost模型的AUC为79.2%(95%CI 69%-89.4%),特异性为77.46%,敏感性为65.22%,阳性预测值为48.39%,阴性预测值为87.3%,F1分数为56%。Shapley加法解释分析显示了个体变量对模型结果的影响。决策曲线分析表明,该模型在阈值概率为15%至48%之间时特别有益。 结论:一个具有临床相关性的多模态模型可以预测AL,这在AL临床概率较低的情况下尤其有价值。
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