Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Geography and the Environment, University of North Texas, Fort Worth metroplex, Dallas, USA.
BMC Ecol Evol. 2024 Jul 5;24(1):93. doi: 10.1186/s12862-024-02281-8.
The Persian fallow deer or Mesopotamian fallow Deer (Dama mesopotamica, Brook 1875), a species of significant ecological importance, had faced the threat of extinction in Iran. One conservation strategy involved the translocation of Persian deer to enclosed areas across Iran, where they were afforded protection from external threats and provided with essential care by human caretakers. While human caretakers diligently attend to their needs and mitigate external threats, climate variables may now become critical factors affecting population dynamics in enclosed areas. This study aims to assess the similarity in climate niches between the original area (Dez and Karkheh) of the Persian deer species and 11 newly enclosed areas. To achieve this, we employed climate data and ecological niche modeling (ENM) techniques to assess the variations in climate among 12 areas. We utilized the environmental equivalency test to determine whether the environmental spaces of area pairs exhibit significant differences and whether these spaces are interchangeable. Extrapolation analyses were also constructed in the next steps to explore climatic conditions in original fallow deer habitats that are non-analogous to those in other parts of Iran. Our results reveal significant disparities in climate conditions between the original and all translocated areas. Based on observations of population growth in specific enclosed areas where translocated deer populations have thrived, we hypothesize that the species may demonstrate a non-equilibrium distribution in Iran. Consequently, these new areas could potentially be regarded as part of the species' potential climate niche. Extrapolation analysis showed that for a significant portion of Iran, extrapolation predictions are highly uncertain and potentially unreliable for the translocation of Persian fallow deer. However, the primary objective of translocation efforts remains the establishment of self-sustaining populations of Persian deer capable of thriving in natural areas beyond enclosed areas, thus ensuring their long-term survival and contributing to preservation efforts. Evaluating the success of newly translocated species requires additional time, with varying levels of success observed. In cases where the growth rate of the species in certain enclosed areas falls below expectations, it is prudent to consider climate variables that may contribute to population declines. Furthermore, for future translocations, we recommend selecting areas with climate similarities to regions where the species has demonstrated growth rates.
波斯黇鹿或美索不达米亚黇鹿（Dama mesopotamica，Brook 1875），一种具有重要生态意义的物种，在伊朗曾面临灭绝的威胁。一种保护策略涉及将波斯鹿转移到伊朗各地的封闭区域，在那里它们可以免受外部威胁，并得到人类饲养员的必要照顾。虽然人类饲养员认真照顾它们的需求并减轻外部威胁，但气候变量现在可能成为影响封闭区域种群动态的关键因素。本研究旨在评估波斯鹿物种原始区域（Dez 和 Karkheh）与 11 个新封闭区域之间气候生态位的相似性。为此，我们使用气候数据和生态位模型（ENM）技术评估了 12 个区域之间的气候变化。我们使用环境等效性测试来确定区域对之间的环境空间是否存在显著差异以及这些空间是否可以互换。在下一步骤中还构建了外推分析，以探索与伊朗其他地区非相似的原始黇鹿栖息地的气候条件。我们的研究结果表明，原始区域和所有转移区域之间的气候条件存在显著差异。基于特定封闭区域中迁移鹿种群繁荣的种群增长观察，我们假设该物种在伊朗可能表现出非平衡分布。因此，这些新区域可能被视为该物种潜在气候生态位的一部分。外推分析表明，对于伊朗的很大一部分地区，外推预测极不确定，并且可能不可靠，无法用于波斯黇鹿的转移。然而，转移工作的主要目标仍然是建立能够在封闭区域之外的自然区域中茁壮成长的波斯黇鹿的自给自足种群，从而确保它们的长期生存并为保护工作做出贡献。评估新转移物种的成功需要更多的时间，并观察到不同程度的成功。在某些封闭区域中，该物种的增长率低于预期的情况下，需要考虑可能导致种群减少的气候变量。此外，对于未来的转移，我们建议选择与该物种已表现出增长率的区域具有气候相似性的区域。
