Thermal tolerance of giant salmonfly nymphs () varies across populations in a regulated river.

Warming of aquatic ecosystems is transforming the distribution, phenology and growth of the organisms dependent upon these ecosystems. Aquatic insects such as stoneflies are especially vulnerable to warming because the aquatic nymph stage of their life cycle depends on cool, well-oxygenated, flowing water habitat. We tracked thermal effects on available aerobic capacity of the aquatic nymph stage of an iconic and vulnerable stonefly species, the giant salmonfly (), to compare habitat thermal regime measurements for two salmonfly populations from habitats separated by a gradient in summer weekly maximum temperatures. Contrary to expectations, the thermal optima range of the warmer habitat population was cooler than for the cooler habitat population. We posit that this unexpected interpopulation variation in thermal response is more strongly driven by diel and seasonal thermal variability than by the highest summer temperatures experienced within respective habitats. Additionally, we show that summer daily maximum temperatures could result in periodic limits in available aerobic capacity to support work of the warmer habitat nymphs and may be the mechanism underlying reduced abundance relative to the upstream cooler habitat population. Our findings provide insight into potential thermal and metabolic mechanisms that could regulate the success of ecological and culturally important aquatic insect species experiencing global change. We conclude that thermal regimes and thermal variation, not just mean and maximum temperatures, are critical drivers of aquatic insect responses to water temperatures.